XPL, with RSI at the 32.51 level approaching the oversold region, momentum indicators generally point to bearish pressure; MACD negative histogram and trading below EMAs confirm weak trend strength.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
XPL’s current price is at 0.09 USD level with a 1.98% decline in the last 24 hours, showing limited movement in the daily range of 0.09-0.10 USD. Although volume is at a relatively high level of 111.56 million USD, this volume reflects a distribution pattern supporting the decline. The overall trend direction is downward; the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and the 0.14 USD resistance forms a strong barrier. Among momentum oscillators, RSI at a low level like 32.51 offers short-term recovery potential, but MACD’s negative histogram and position below the EMA ribbon indicate weak trend strength. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 6 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/1 resistance on 1W. This confluence highlights the strong 0.0897 USD support (score 83/100) and 0.0941 USD resistance (score 60/100). The combination of EMA dynamics and momentum oscillators in trend strength measurement confirms that selling pressure is dominant for now; however, the RSI oversold condition should be monitored carefully.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is at 32.51 level and positioned just above the classic oversold region of 30. On the daily chart, while price makes new lows, no clear bullish divergence is observed in RSI; on the contrary, regular bearish divergence signals have been supported in past declines. This shows that momentum is still downward and bears hold control. On the weekly timeframe, RSI is near 40 levels, while short-term 4-hour chart readings down to 28 increase oversold bounce potential. However, the lack of divergence emphasizes the need for additional confirmation for a trend change. Hidden divergence analysis is weak; if price approaches the 0.0897 support, a bullish hidden divergence formation can be monitored, which could provide short-term buying momentum within the bearish trend.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 32.51 is very close to the oversold threshold; historically, XPL levels below 30 have signaled recoveries after 20-30% pullbacks. In the current situation, a jump toward the 50 level is likely, but reaching the 70 overbought region requires strong volume confirmation. While the oversold condition signals momentum exhaustion, the risk of fakeouts is high within the overall downtrend. It’s also worth noting the confluence between RSI and Stochastic oscillator; both are at similar low levels, which may indicate short-term bottom formation.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD status is fully bearish; the signal line is below the MACD line and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. On the daily chart, histogram bars have grown recently, confirming increasing selling momentum – this is a typical dynamic after a bearish crossover. The histogram’s negative but non-narrowing trend shows buyers have not yet entered. On the 4-hour chart, there is no attempt for the MACD line to reset below the zero line; on the contrary, it is making new lows. On the weekly MACD, the signal line crossover is downward and the deep negativity of the histogram reinforces the weakness of long-term trend strength. In momentum confluence, MACD histogram expansion signals that selling pressure may continue despite RSI oversold. The critical point to watch is the histogram approaching the zero line; in case of narrowing, we can expect a bullish crossover.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Short-term EMA20 is at 0.12 USD level and price is trading below it, clarifying the bearish short-term bias. There is no squeeze between EMA10 and EMA50; the ribbon is opening downward. If price rejects and approaches EMA20, it will act as resistance; a breakout requires volume increase. In short-term trend strength measurement, EMA dynamics are weak – the ribbon’s expansion instead of narrowing supports bears.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 is around 0.13 and long-term EMA200 forms resistance in the 0.15 USD range. Price remaining below these levels confirms the overall downward trend. In EMA ribbon dynamics, the medium/long-term lines gaining a downward slope instead of flattening shows that trend strength has not diminished. On the 1W chart, EMA100 support overlaps with 0.0897; this is a critical hold point. EMA crossovers should be monitored for trend strength – a bullish golden cross looks distant.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is currently at 72,461 USD level with a 4.21% decline in downtrend; Supertrend gives a bearish signal. Main supports at 71,888, 68,853, and 59,866 USD; resistances at 73,937, 76,927, 81,220 USD. As BTC dominance rises, altcoins are under pressure; due to XPL’s high correlation with BTC (around 0.85%), if BTC breaks below 71,888, XPL could test the 0.0897 support. If BTC recovers (above 73,937), short-term momentum jump possible in XPL – but the current BTC bearish Supertrend requires caution for altcoins. Key BTC levels: if 71,888 support breaks, XPL could head toward bearish targets (0.0106).
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
In the synthesis of momentum indicators, RSI 32.51 oversold condition offers short-term recovery hope, but MACD negative histogram expansion and trading below EMAs strengthen the bearish trend. While volume confirms the decline, MTF confluence highlights the 0.0897 support and 0.0941 resistance. Bullish target 0.1772 (low score 13) is distant; bearish 0.0106 (score 22) is more likely. Overall outlook is downtrend with weak momentum; RSI divergence or MACD narrowing awaits confirmation. Follow XPL Spot Analysis for spot, XPL Futures Analysis for futures. Market is volatile; monitor levels.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xpl-technical-analysis-february-4-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
