Solana Recovery Narrative Strengthens as RWA Market Hits $1.15B and Regulation Turns Positive

Solana’s (SOL) recent price weakness has not erased the broader recovery narrative forming around the network. While SOL continues to trade below the psychologically important $100 level after a sharp pullback from January highs, on-chain data and institutional forecasts suggest the blockchain’s long-term positioning is improving.

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Growing real-world asset (RWA) activity, record network usage, and a more constructive regulatory backdrop are increasingly shaping analysts’ views of Solana’s next phase.

Price Pressure Persists, But Key Support Holds

SOL has fallen roughly 25% from recent highs near $127, slipping below $100 amid broader crypto market risk-off sentiment. Technical indicators still reflect caution, with bearish momentum dominating short-term charts and some analysts warning of a possible drop toward the $85 area if support near $95 fails.

That said, the $95–$100 zone has repeatedly acted as a major demand area in past market cycles. The daily relative strength index has dipped into oversold territory, a condition that has previously coincided with local bottoms for SOL.

Several technical analysts note that a sustained defense of this range could open the door to a recovery toward the $150 region, with more optimistic scenarios extending toward $215–$260 if resistance levels are reclaimed.

Network Activity And RWA Growth Support The Thesis

Despite price volatility, Solana’s on-chain fundamentals continue to strengthen. Total value locked recently reached an all-time high of 73.4 million SOL, equivalent to roughly $7.5 billion, marking an 18% weekly increase.

On the other hand, daily transactions have surged above 100 million, hitting multi-year highs, while decentralized exchange volumes are also at their strongest levels in months.

Beyond DeFi metrics, the real-world asset market on Solana has expanded rapidly, with tokenized RWAs on the network now estimated at around $1.15 billion. This growth aligns with Solana’s positioning as a low-cost, high-throughput settlement layer, particularly for stablecoins and tokenized financial products.

Faster, more stablecoin-friendly turnover and consistently low transaction fees have made the network increasingly attractive for high-volume use cases.

Standard Chartered has reinforced this longer-term view, cutting its end-2026 SOL price target to $250 from $310 due to near-term volatility, while raising its 2030 forecast to $2,000.

The bank cited Solana’s dominance in micropayments, stablecoin transfers, and emerging real-world applications as key drivers behind its long-range projections.

According to the bank, Solana’s ability to process large transaction volumes at minimal cost gives it an advantage as regulation around digital assets becomes clearer and more supportive.

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While short-term price action remains uncertain, the combination of rising network usage, expanding RWA activity, and improving regulatory clarity continues to underpin Solana’s recovery narrative.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart on Tradingview