Jefferies sees few signs of a BTC bottom yet flags upside for tokens with fundamentals

Jefferies says the latest crypto selloff shows few signs of an imminent bottom, even as bitcoin and ether hover near levels that have historically drawn dip buyers.

In a research note this week, the bank described the downturn as a liquidity-driven correction rather than a collapse in blockchain activity, pointing instead to continued network usage and selective corporate bitcoin accumulation as evidence that the sector’s underlying infrastructure remains intact.

This comes as bitcoin trades near $64,800, roughly 47% below its October 2025 peak of about $123,500, while ether trades around $1,900, down nearly 60% from its prior cycle highs.

Jefferies wrote that sharp price declines have revived familiar “crypto winter” narratives, but argued that current weakness is more closely tied to broader risk-off sentiment in global markets and a rotation away from growth assets than to any deterioration in blockchain fundamentals. More than $2 billion in recent long liquidations has further amplified day-to-day volatility across major tokens.

The bank highlighted selling from large bitcoin holders and persistent spot ETF net outflows as key near-term headwinds, suggesting institutional portfolio rebalancing is exerting greater pressure on prices than retail behavior.

At the same time, Jefferies noted that smaller and mid-sized holders appear to be holding existing positions rather than aggressively exiting, while centralized exchange trading volumes and decentralized lending activity have begun to stabilize after recent spikes.

Despite its cautious tone, the report stops short of a fully bearish outlook. Jefferies said longer-term catalysts such as regulatory progress, infrastructure maturity, and greater participation by traditional finance could eventually drive renewed interest in tokens tied to revenue-generating blockchains, leading to wider performance divergence rather than a uniform rebound.