Bitcoin struggles around $115K as ETFs see outflows — could BTC whale accumulation lead to a reversal?

Bitcoin is holding near the $115,000 mark after a week of choppy price action, with exchange-traded fund outflows weighing on sentiment even as whale wallets quietly expand their holdings. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped around 6% from its Aug. 14 all-time high, remaining 3% down in the past week. After a strong summer rally that propelled Bitcoin from the $97,000 range in late May to new highs in August, this pullback indicates a cooling market.

The market is still split over whether this is a healthy retracement within a larger uptrend or the beginning of a more significant correction.

ETF outflows weigh on sentiment, Ethereum dominates inflows

Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $121 million in net outflows on Aug. 18, pushing monthly outflows to nearly $140 million. This contrasts sharply with Ethereum (ETH), which has attracted a record $2.83 billion in inflows in the past month.

CoinShares’ Aug. 18 report confirms this divergence, with year-to-date Ethereum inflows now reaching $11 billion, compared to $5.3 billion for Bitcoin. According to the report, investor preferences have shifted in favor of ETH exposure, particularly as expectations surrounding staking approval for Ethereum ETFs grow.

Whales accumulate as BTC price dips

Santiment’s latest on-chain data shows that wallets with 10–10,000 BTC have added over 20,000 BTC since last week’s pullback, bringing their total accumulation to over 225,000 BTC since March. Because of the historical strong correlation between this group’s movements and the direction of future prices, there has been speculation that smart money may be preparing for another leg higher.

Market analyst Rekt Capital, on an Aug. 18 X post, noted that Bitcoin is at a point in the cycle where shallow retraces historically set the stage for strong upside. In both 2017 and 2021, quick pullbacks of 25–29% acted as technical resets before fresh rallies. A similar pattern now, provided $114,000 holds as support, could mark the foundation for a new price discovery phase.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is below the midline of its Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, indicating that there is still downward pressure. The bands are starting to tighten, which is often a sign of larger movements. Nearing oversold territory at 38, the relative strength suggests that selling pressure may be waning.

The short-term EMAs (10–30) are leaning bearish, but the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages still show signs of support for the overall trend. Oscillators also exhibit divergence. The momentum and MACD show sell signals, but the Bull-Bear Power points to a potential move back toward buyers.

If whales continue to accumulate and the $114,000 support holds, Bitcoin might rise back toward the $118,000–$120,000 range. A retest of the most recent all-time high of $124,000 might be feasible if volume confirms. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, or about $110,000 and $103,000, are the next significant supports. Failure to defend $114,000 could lead to a more severe correction.