Arthur Hayes challenges Multicoin Capital founder to $100K bet on HYPE price

A public feud between two high-profile crypto investors has turned into a proposed six-month price wager.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has challenged Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani to a $100,000 bet over the future performance of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. 

The proposal was posted on X on Feb. 8, 2026, after Hayes reposted and responded to Samani’s sharp criticism of the project.

Under the terms outlined by Hayes, the bet would run from 00:00 UTC on Feb. 10 through 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026. During that period, Hyperliquid (HYPE) would need to outperform any altcoin with a market capitalization above $1 billion on CoinGecko. 

Samani would be allowed to select the comparison token. The loser would donate $100,000 to a charity chosen by the winner. The exchange comes as Hyperliquid and its token remain in focus among derivatives traders, even as the wider market trades under pressure.

Dispute over Hyperliquid’s structure and leadership

The bet follows weeks of criticism from Samani, who has repeatedly questioned Hyperliquid’s design and governance.

In recent posts, Samani said the platform’s code is not fully open-source, relies on a permissioned distribution model, and is led by a founder who left his home country to launch the business. He also accused the project of enabling criminal activity and described it as fundamentally flawed.

Hayes rejected those claims and framed the debate in market terms. He argued that if HYPE is truly a weak asset, it should fail to outperform other large-cap tokens over time. If it succeeds, he said, critics should reconsider their views.

The dispute gained traction after analyst Jon Charbonneau praised Hyperliquid’s trading execution, comparing it favorably with traditional venues such as CME. That commentary helped re-ignite debate over whether newer on-chain derivatives platforms can compete with established exchanges.

As of press time, Samani had not publicly confirmed whether he would accept the wager.

Hayes’ purchases and Multicoin-linked accumulation

The wager has drawn attention partly because of Hayes’ recent buying activity. According to on-chain data, Hayes spent approximately $1.91 million in early February 2026 to acquire 57,881 HYPE tokens. His entire holdings increased to about 131,807 tokens, which at the time was worth about $4.3 million. 

These acquisitions, which came after the sales of PENDLE, ENA, and LDO, indicate a deliberate shift toward Hyperliquid. In September 2025, Hayes had sold about 96,600 HYPE tokens for roughly $5.1 million, locking in profits amid concerns about token unlocks and competition. His recent accumulation marks a renewed vote of confidence in the project.

Additionally, wallet data indicates that in late January 2026, addresses linked with Multicoin began accumulating HYPE. Reports indicate that more than 87,100 ETH was swapped for around 1.35 million HYPE tokens, worth over $40 million at the time, through intermediaries such as Galaxy Digital.

This accumulation took place while Samani continued to take a critical public stand, which complicated the ongoing discussion. However, in early February, Samani transitioned into an advisory position at Multicoin, resigning from daily management. Some observers believe this transition may have influenced the fund’s recent positioning.

For now, Hayes’ proposed bet stands as a rare public test of conviction in a market where opinions and capital flows often move in different directions. Whether Samani accepts the bet or not, the episode has placed renewed focus on Hyperliquid’s role in the evolving crypto derivatives landscape.