the market holds its breath

Update at 08:00 UTC on August 19, 2025 — The crypto sector turns negative: 92 of the top 100 tokens close down as traders reduce risk ahead of the speech by Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (August 21-23, 2025) (Kansas City Fed).

Liquidity is thinning, increasing the probability of sharp movements on BTC and ETH in the next 24–48 hours. In this context, caution prevails.

According to the data collected by our analysis desk together with market providers (CoinGlass, Deribit), the reduction in depth on spot order books is evident in the last 48 hours, with total liquidations exceeding the values listed.

Sector analysts also observe an increase in the intraday correlation between cryptovalute and nominal yields of US Treasuries, a phenomenon that accentuates price reactions to macro signals.

Market in numbers: capitalization, volumes, and price action

Data recorded at 08:00 UTC on CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko:

• Total capitalization: approximately $3.96 trillion.
• 24h Volumes: approximately $154 billion.
• Bitcoin (BTC): ~$115,118, -0.1% over 24 hours.
• Ethereum (ETH): ~$4,237, -0.7% over 24 hours.
• BNB: +1.3% (best among the top 10).
• Liquidations: over $270 million in the last 24 hours, with a prevalence on long positions on ETH and BTC (CoinGlass).

Main Takeaways

• Thin liquidity: increases the market’s sensitivity to macro titles and ETF flows.
• Short-term volatility: options and derivatives indicate risk concentrated in the very short term.

Why are cryptos going down today

The combination of a potentially stronger dollar, rising yields, and anticipation for the Fed prompts traders to reduce exposure. It should be noted that, near major macro events, desks and market makers tend to reduce net risk: this results in larger movements on volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.

In this context, intraday flows (ETFs and derivatives) can have significant percentage impacts on prices due to reduced liquidity.

Jackson Hole: what Powell might say and why it matters for crypto

Attention converges on the speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (August 21-23, 2025). A hawkish tone would increase the probability of technical retracements, while a more accommodating message could reignite the bid on BTC/ETH.

As detailed in market analyses, the Fed’s policy stance directly influences real rates and the preference for risky assets: for institutional reference see the documentation on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy (Board of Governors – Monetary Policy). In this context, Bloomberg also indicates expectations of cross-asset volatility following the event.

Interpretation for BTC/ETH

• Accommodative tone: relief on real rates, rebound of the main tokens, and reduction of selling pressure.
• Restrictive tone: greater premium to the dollar and drawdown on risky assets, with possible accelerations on key technical levels.

USA spot ETF: outflows and sentiment

The spot ETFs on Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded net outflows in the previous session, fueling cautious sentiment. Preliminary data (tracker SoSoValue / Farside Investors) indicate:

• ETF Bitcoin: aggregated outflows ~$121.8 million on the day [to be verified].
• ETF Ethereum: outflows ~$196.6 million [to verify].
• Among the most influential vehicles: iShares Bitcoin Trust (BlackRock), ARK Invest/21Shares, Fidelity.

Overall, the balance since the beginning of the year remains positive, but daily variability is high: prices are more reactive to flow than to fundamentals in the very short term. That said, the picture can change in just a few sessions.

Derivatives and volatility: signals from the short term

In derivatives, the 7-day implied volatility on ETH is increasing, while the 30-day IV remains more stable: the risk is concentrated on the short-term. Additionally, there is a repricing of options close to the event, with skew more sensitive on the put side (Deribit Insights).

Scenarios for 24–48 hours and by the end of August

If the speech is more accommodative

• Compression of volatility and resumption of purchases on BTC/ETH.
• Reduction of outflows from ETFs and normalization of basis on futures.

• Increase in the probability of retracements and stop-run on nearby supports.
• Possible widening of the put skew and increase in forced liquidations.

If outflows from ETFs persist

• Pro-cyclical effect on the price with high intraday volatility.
• Greater sensitivity to macro titles and data on labor/consumption (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

BTC: probability of decline in September

The probability of testing psychological levels during September increases if the Fed does not clarify the path on rates. The models cited by the desks diverge: some see increasing chances of stabilization above recent highs, while others favor the risk of short but intense corrections.

In the absence of guidance from the Fed, the flow (ETFs and derivatives) remains the dominant driver. It must be said that seasonality does not help: historically, the late summer window has shown wider fluctuations compared to the annual average.

BTC: levels and operational-informative scenarios for September

• Area $100,000: psychological threshold monitored by the desks; a return below could trigger short-term stops.
• Area $110,000–$120,000: recent congestion zone; sustained breakouts require stable volumes and inflows on ETFs (Guide to spot cryptocurrency ETFs).
• Volatility: historically irregular late summer seasonal window; pay attention to the sequence of US macro data (inflation, payrolls).

Regulation and external factors

The regulatory pressure remains a factor. In the United States, there is an ongoing FinCEN consultation on new anti-money laundering measures for transactions in digital assets (Federal Register).

In parallel, the U.S. Treasury has published the 2024 National Illicit Finance Strategy, which includes recommendations on transparency, custody, and reporting (U.S. Treasury). These regulatory dossiers, along with the real economic data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, influence the likelihood of Fed moves and the risk premium required by institutional investors.

FAQ

Why does the correlation with traditional markets matter today?

When macro uncertainty increases, investors seek liquidity and refuge in the dollar/Treasury. In such phases, crypto and equities tend to move together more than usual.

Is the current drop off the scale?

No: it falls within a volatility regime compatible with macro events. The direction of the upcoming sessions will depend mainly on the Fed and ETF flows.

What signals to monitor in the short term?

• Text and nuances of Powell’s speech.
• Daily net flow of spot ETFs on BTC/ETH.
• Trend of implied volatility and liquidations on derivatives.

Related Insights

• All the news on the crypto markets
• Analysis and data on Bitcoin
• Analysis and data on Ethereum
• Guide to spot ETFs on cryptocurrencies

Sources and methodology

• Capitalization data, volumes, and prices: CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko — timestamp 08:00 UTC, August 19, 2025.
• Liquidations: CoinGlass — ~$270 mln over 24h (data recorded at 08:00 UTC, August 19, 2025).
• USA spot ETF flows: SoSoValue / Farside Investors — preliminary values as of August 18, 2025.
• Macro context and volatility ahead of Jackson Hole: Bloomberg.
• Jackson Hole 2025 Calendar: Kansas City Fed.
• Fed policy and guidance: Board of Governors – Monetary Policy.
• Macro data reference (employment/consumption): Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Regulatory proposals FinCEN/Treasury: Federal Register; U.S. Treasury.