Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Triangle Breakdown and Bearish Retail Sentiment—Can Bulls Hold $112K?

After consolidating near $115K for several weeks, BTC slipped under key technical markers, raising concerns about whether a deeper correction could be underway. While retail traders appear increasingly bearish, institutional appetite continues to anchor Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.

Market Overview: Technical Patterns Signal Caution

Bitcoin’s latest move has taken it below the 50-day simple moving average at $115,870, which now serves as resistance. Chart watchers are also pointing to a potential head-and-shoulders formation, with neckline support close to $112,000. If that level fails, analysts warn the drop could extend toward $108,000 or even $105,150.

Bitcoin hovers at $113K; key levels $112K support and $116–$124K resistance, potential rebound to $130K. Source: @forex_arslan via X

Technical indicators add weight to the cautious view. The MACD has flipped negative, while the RSI is hovering at 41, leaving room for further downside before oversold conditions kick in. Candlestick patterns at current levels are showing hesitation rather than a full capitulation, suggesting the market may be gearing up for its next big move rather than breaking down completely.

Despite the pullback, the bigger picture remains constructive. Bitcoin has still managed to preserve a pattern of higher lows since June, signaling that the broader uptrend hasn’t been broken and that current dips might present accumulation opportunities for long-term holders.

Trend and News Factors: Retail Sentiment Turns Ultra-Bearish

Data from Santiment reveals that retail sentiment flipped sharply negative in the past 24 hours, marking the weakest outlook since June 22. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 44, firmly in “Fear” territory. Historically, such extreme sentiment shifts have often lined up with mid-cycle corrections in previous bull runs, including 2017 and 2021, before BTC eventually regained momentum.

Bitcoin dips below $113K as retail traders panic—historical fear could signal a buying opportunity for patient investors. Source: @santimentfeed via X

The decline also mirrors broader crypto market weakness. After topping near $124,000 last week, Bitcoin has shed about 8.5%, dragging the overall crypto market cap back under $4 trillion. Analysts emphasize that pullbacks of this size are not unusual in strong bull markets and can provide strategic entry points for institutional investors.

Expert Insights: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge and Institutional Support

Institutional investors are not worrying about recent volatility. Companies such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet continue to add Bitcoins, using the pullback as an opportunity to create buffers. Their actions reflect the role of Bitcoin as an inflation shield and macro volatility buffer.

Bitcoin eyes $116K resistance, but a break below $112K could trigger a drop toward $105K or lower. Source: Xanrox on TradingView

Bitcoin often experiences short-term ups and downs. While retail traders can switch from buying to selling quickly, institutional investors usually take a longer-term view. Overall, the trend remains upward as long as the broader economic conditions stay stable.

In the near term, investors expect up to $116,150 as close resistance. Breaking above that price could pave the way to $120,900 and, in the long run, $124,450. If the $112,000 neckline breaks down, Bitcoin can fall back to $108,000, or lower, following the kind of fast but short-lived corrections seen in earlier bull cycles.

BTC Next Move and Long-Term Outlook

At around $113,966, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. Its short-term direction is likely to be decided by whether the bulls can sustain the $112,000 support and break the $116,150 resistance level. History and institutional demand in place require that even if BTC continues to fall in the near term, the medium- to longer-term outlook is positive.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $113,162, down 2.06% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

For now, investors can closely monitor sentiment reversals, technicals, and macro triggers, as the next couple of weeks could turn out to be what reveals the secret as to whether or not Bitcoin attempts once again to break new highs or remains bogged down in consolidation mode prior to its next leg higher.