$30K BTC Price Incoming? — On-Chain Data Declares Bitcoin in “Confirmed Bear Market” ⋆ ZyCrypto

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin has entered a confirmed bear market, with multiple structural indicators pointing to sustained downside pressure and weakening demand.

According to the analytics firm, spot Bitcoin volumes remain structurally weak, with the 30-day average still deeply depressed even as the price rolled over from the $98,000 region to the low $62,000s. This divergence highlights a growing demand vacuum, where persistent sell-side pressure is no longer matched by meaningful spot absorption.

Glassnode notes that Bitcoin has suffered a decisive breakdown after slipping below its True Market Mean near $80,200, keeping market participants firmly on the defensive. Repeated failures to reclaim the short-term holder’s cost basis, totaling around $94,500, reinforced bearish control.

As price declined, profitability across the network compressed sharply, with unrealized gains fading and realized losses accelerating as the market pushed into the $70,000 range.

Moreover, on-chain cost-basis distributions indicate early signs of accumulation between $70,000 and $80,000. Within that zone, a dense supply cluster between $66,900 and $70,600 has emerged as a high-conviction area where near-term selling pressure may be partially absorbed.

However, Glassnode cautions that elevated loss realization suggests that fear-driven selling remains active, implying that seller exhaustion has not yet fully materialized.

That said, futures trading has entered a forced deleveraging phase, marked by the greatest long liquidation spikes seen during the drawdown. These events have amplified volatility and reinforced downside continuation, flushing excess leverage but failing to establish a durable price floor.

Options markets share this caution, with implied volatility staying elevated and downside skew steepening as traders continue to pay a premium for protection.

Meanwhile, demand from major allocators has softened materially. ETF and Treasury-linked net flows have faded, removing the consistent bid that had supported previous expansion phases.

With spot liquidity still thin and leverage only partially reset, Glassnode concludes that any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing.