Bitcoin BTC Trapped in $60K-$72K Range as Institutions Flee

Rongchai Wang Feb 12, 2026 04:24

Glassnode analysis reveals Bitcoin faces structural weakness with ETF outflows, $82K-$97K overhead resistance, and only 4.9% of short-term holders in profit.

Bitcoin's structural weakness has deepened, with the cryptocurrency now trading at $67,585—down 2.52% in the past 24 hours—while on-chain data reveals a market caught between defensive buyers and fleeing institutions.

Fresh analysis from Glassnode published February 11 paints a picture of a market in limbo. BTC sits trapped between the True Market Mean at $79,200 and the Realized Price around $55,000, a corridor that mirrors the painful consolidation of early 2022. The firm's Chris Beamish notes this range-bound structure could persist for months without an extraordinary catalyst.

The $60K-$72K Battleground

Sell-side pressure is being absorbed within the $60,000-$72,000 zone—the same accumulation band that defined the first half of 2024. Buyers are stepping in, but conviction looks shaky at best.

Here's the problem: massive supply clusters sit overhead between $82,000-$97,000 and $100,000-$117,000. These represent holders now deep underwater after BTC's 50%+ plunge from October's $126,000 all-time high. Any relief rally faces this wall of potential sellers looking to exit at break-even.

Short-term holder profitability tells the story. Just 4.9% of recent buyers are in profit—a level Glassnode flags as "structurally fragile." When almost everyone who bought recently is underwater, upside momentum struggles to build.

Institutions Head for the Exits

Digital Asset Treasury flows have turned sharply negative across the board. Spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even sovereign holdings are all registering net outflows simultaneously. This isn't tactical rotation—it's coordinated de-risking.

"The scale of these outflows highlights 'heavy' spot conditions, with absorption struggling to keep pace with distribution," the Glassnode report states.

Spot trading volume spiked during the selloff into the low-$70,000s but faded quickly afterward. The pattern suggests reactive trading during stress rather than genuine accumulation. Wintermute data confirms Bitcoin has now erased all gains since the 2025 inauguration.

Derivatives Signal Caution

The futures market has gone quiet. Perpetual funding rates compressed toward neutral as leveraged traders stepped back rather than betting on direction. Without this speculative fuel, spot markets are left to dictate price action.

Options positioning remains deeply defensive. One-week implied volatility surged over 20 points during the crash and hasn't fully retreated. The 25-delta skew—measuring put versus call demand—sits at 23% put premium for one-month contracts, near the extremes reached during the selloff itself.

Dealer gamma positioning adds another wrinkle. With BTC at $68,000 (at Glassnode's time of writing), spot sits in a short gamma corridor where market makers must sell into weakness and buy into strength. This mechanical dynamic can amplify moves in either direction.

What Breaks the Deadlock

Glassnode identifies two scenarios that could force a regime change. Bulls need a decisive reclaim of the $79,200 True Market Mean to signal renewed strength. Bears would need a systemic shock—something on the scale of LUNA or FTX—to push price below the $55,000 Realized Price.

The 200-week moving average converges near $61,000, providing a potential floor if current support fails. Key resistance sits at $70,000 psychologically, with $72,000-$72,500 representing the upper boundary of the current range.

Until treasury flows stabilize and genuine spot demand emerges, expect Bitcoin to remain reactive rather than expansionary. The market structure favors patience over aggression.

• bitcoin
• btc
• on-chain analysis
• institutional outflows
• market structure