Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin price drop to $50,000 in months

For much of the past year, Standard Chartered Bank stood as one of the most aggressive bulls in the institutional finance space, frequently making headlines with six-figure Bitcoin forecasts. However, the bank’s latest research note represents a stark pivot.

By slashing its end-2026 targets and warning of significant short-term drawdowns, the bank has signalled that the path to crypto’s promised land is becoming increasingly fraught with structural and macroeconomic hurdles.

Standard Chartered gutted its cryptocurrency price forecasts, and it’s hard not to see it as a reality check for anyone still riding the 2024-2025 highs.

The bank chopped its end-2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 down to $100,000 and Ether from $7,500 to $4,000, Solana from $250 to $135, BNB from $1,755 to $1,050 and AVAX from 100 to $18.

Worse, they’re calling for near-term pain: Bitcoin sliding to $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 before any real bounce.

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, didn’t sugarcoat it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding; holdings are down almost 100,000 BTC from their October peak.

A lot of those buyers got in around a $90,000 average cost and are now sitting on 25% paper losses. Kendrick’s point is simple: these aren’t diamond-handed HODLers from 2022. They’re more likely to puke their positions than average down.

​Why the bearish pivot on Bitcoin?

​The primary driver behind this tempered outlook appears to be a shift in the institutional adoption narrative. While the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S. provided a massive initial catalyst, the sustained, relentless inflows many analysts expected have begun to plateau.

​1. Standard Chartered points to a slowing of momentum in the spot ETF space. The initial hype cycle has concluded, and the market is now entering a digestion phase. Without a new catalyst to drive retail and institutional FOMO, the bank sees a lack of immediate buy-side pressure to sustain prices at all-time highs.

Furthermore, if global liquidity remains tight due to central banks holding interest rates higher for longer, risk assets like Bitcoin are the first to be sold off to cover margins elsewhere.

​2. The downgrade for Ether is particularly severe. The bank’s move to lower the target to $4,000 and predict a dip to $1,400 reflects growing scepticism regarding Ethereum’s revenue model.

As more activity moves to Layer 2 scaling solutions (like Arbitrum and Base), the mainnet sees lower gas fees, which effectively reduces the burn rate of ETH. This creates a deflationary headwind. Additionally, the delay or lack of clarity regarding a wider utility explosion for ETH has led analysts to re-evaluate its premium compared to Bitcoin.

​3. The bank’s analysis likely factors in a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape. If the soft landing for the U.S. economy becomes a bumpy landing, or if inflation proves stickier than anticipated, the digital gold thesis for Bitcoin is tested.

In times of extreme uncertainty, even BTC often trades like a high-beta tech stock rather than a haven, leading to the $50,000 dip forecast.
That said, Standard Chartered didn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. They kept their 2030 calls intact: half a million for Bitcoin, $40,000 for Ether. The long-term story, institutional adoption, clearer rules, and actual utility haven’t vanished. They just think the path there got a lot bumpier.
For traders, wisdom demands you treat these revised targets as a yellow flag, not a white one. The bank’s caution matches the bearish mode of the market right now, real capitulation risk short-term, but no structural collapse.

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