Consensus (Binance Hong Kong) – In an era of favorable regulation, why are institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings?

Author: Viee | Biteye Content Team

In early February 2026, Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour was more lively than usual as the Consensus Conference, a focal point of Asia's crypto narrative, was held once again.

Bitcoin prices recently dipped below $70,000, with sluggish trading volume and widespread investor anxiety. In this bear market, what choices will exchange giants make to cope with the downturn? For ordinary retail investors, the question may not be when the bull market will arrive, but whether they can survive this bear market. Platforms are adjusting their portfolios, institutions are building positions, so how should we allocate our funds and protect our principal?

This article will begin with Binance's statement at the Consensus Conference, analyze the underlying logic behind institutional purchases of Bitcoin, and discuss how retail and institutional investors can prepare together for an industry downturn, in conjunction with recent exchange financial activities.

I. Binance's Voice at the Consensus Conference

Amidst price volatility and low sentiment, the speeches at this Consensus Conference differed from the passionate pronouncements of previous bull markets, instead conveying a judgment on structural changes in the market. The speech by Binance co-CEO Richard Teng was particularly representative, capturing several clear signals regarding regulation, institutions, and infrastructure.

First, regulation is no longer an obstacle, but a prerequisite.

Richard emphasized that "clear regulation is the foundation of innovation," specifically mentioning recent legislative developments in the United States and the boost in confidence the Genius Act has brought to the stablecoin industry. Stablecoins are gradually moving from an internal liquidity tool within the crypto space into corporate finance and cross-border settlement systems, signifying that crypto assets are also migrating into financial infrastructure.

Second, the boundary between Web2 and Web3 is disappearing.

Another noteworthy part of the presentation was Binance's collaboration with Franklin Templeton on a tokenized money market fund. Using tokenized funds as institutional collateral signifies the integration of traditional financial assets into the crypto trading ecosystem.

Meanwhile, the growth in precious metals derivatives trading volume also reflects institutional demand for 24/7 global markets. When money market funds, gold derivatives, and stablecoins begin to form a closed loop on the same platform, the role of exchanges is no longer just about matching transactions, but more like a 24/7 global financial hub.

Third, retail investors are taking a wait-and-see approach, while institutional investors are accumulating positions.

Richard provided a crucial figure: institutional investors added approximately 43,000 bitcoins in January.

The significance of this figure isn't that prices will immediately rise, but rather that the market structure is changing. Retail users in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions remain active, but overall trading activity is indeed lower than during a bull market. In contrast, institutional funds continue to position themselves in low-volatility ranges. Combined with Binance's announcement on January 29, 2026, of a strategic adjustment to the SAFU fund—converting $1 billion of stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin reserves within 30 days—this demonstrates strong institutional confidence.

In other words, while retail investors are waiting for a clear bottom signal, institutions are already making allocation decisions, and smart money may not have left the market.

So here's the question: when institutions are buying and platforms are adjusting their asset structure, how can retail investors gain a deeper understanding of the meaning behind these actions?

II. Why have institutions already taken action when the market is still sluggish?

Regarding the institutional buying mentioned earlier, let's review how Bitcoin has attracted a large amount of institutional funds in recent years, especially since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, when institutional buying has increased significantly.

1. Analysis of Institutional Buying Trends

Currently, institutional buying primarily enters the market through various means, including ETFs, investment funds, corporate purchases, and government investments. The following points illustrate current institutional investment trends:

• Spot ETFs are attracting massive inflows: Institutions are increasingly using spot ETFs to access the Bitcoin market, and ETF data is also a way to gauge market sentiment. For example, according to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest weekly outflow since November of last year (approximately $1.22 billion) at the end of January. Historical experience shows that large-scale redemptions often occur near price bottoms, suggesting that Bitcoin may be approaching a local low. The chart below shows that the average holding cost for ETF investors is approximately $84,099. This price range has repeatedly formed a key support level in the past. If historical patterns repeat themselves, this round of capital outflows may indicate that the short-term downward momentum is nearing its end, and a market rebound is possible.

• Publicly Listed Companies' Holdings Surge: Reports indicate that in Q4 2025, global publicly listed companies held approximately 1.1 million Bitcoins (worth about $94 billion), with 19 new publicly listed companies purchasing Bitcoin. This demonstrates that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a strategic asset by businesses. In addition to well-known strategic treasury companies, several newly listed companies have also joined the buying frenzy, further confirming the influx of institutional capital. The chart below shows the top 10 Bitcoin treasuries.

• National-level initiatives: Some countries are also publicly buying Bitcoin. In November 2025, the government of El Salvador announced that it spent $100 million in a single day to buy approximately 1,090 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 7,000 BTC.

In summary, since 2024, institutional buying has been characterized by a surge in ETF inflows and intensive position building by companies and investment funds. As Richard Teng stated, this trend is expected to continue in 2026 and continue to provide upward momentum for the market.

2. What are some representative public purchases of Bitcoin in history?

As of early 2026, projects that publicly purchased Bitcoin for the purpose of "building a market, stabilizing the ecosystem, or reserving assets" can be divided into five main categories. Below are some representative examples:

As shown in the table above, institutional purchases of Bitcoin for market building can be broadly categorized into three types. The first type is corporate asset allocation, such as MicroStrategy, where companies use BTC as a long-term store of value based on shareholder assets. The second type is purchases by nations/DAOs as a reserve alternative. The third type is purchases by exchanges, such as Binance's recent SAFU conversion. This approach shifts reserves from stablecoins to Bitcoin, which is more resistant to inflation, censorship, and self-custodial, thus enhancing asset independence in the face of potential future geopolitical systemic shocks.

The difference lies here: most companies buy BTC for financial reasons. Binance, however, is using its user protection fund, indicating a purchase aimed at restructuring its risk profile.

3. What are the fundamental differences between Binance's methods and those of other institutions?

First, the asset attributes are different.

MicroStrategy uses company assets, while ETF institutional purchases are passive allocations derived from user subscription funds, without the company bearing responsibility for price fluctuations. El Salvador-style government purchases are more of a policy and strategic act, and their decision-making logic is difficult to replicate. In contrast, Binance uses a user protection fund, converting it into BTC, essentially viewing Bitcoin as the most reliable long-term asset.

Second, the execution methods are different.

MicroStrategy, ETFs, and other institutions employ models closer to trend/bottom-fishing accumulation. Binance, however, buys in stages and has implemented a rebalancing mechanism. If SAFU's market capitalization falls below a predetermined safety threshold, it will continue to add to its position; this dynamic averaging mechanism signifies long-term asset structure management.

Third, their market roles are different.

Corporate cryptocurrency purchases primarily impact a company's investment structure, while continued ETF subscriptions indicate a sustained increase in compliant institutional activity. Exchange-driven cryptocurrency purchases affect overall market liquidity and sentiment. When the world's largest exchange locks up $1 billion worth of BTC as long-term reserves, it reinforces bullish expectations on leading platforms, creating a demonstration effect.

4. Retail investors need to know: What does this mean for the market and the price of BTC?

In the short term, the large-scale public buying has not triggered a sharp price increase, indicating that the market may be in a phase of rational digestion. However, from a structural analysis perspective, we believe there may be several medium- to long-term impacts.

First, $1 billion worth of BTC is locked in an insurance fund for an extended period, effectively reducing the circulating supply, although this represents a small percentage (approximately 0.1%) of the total circulating supply. According to relevant research data, spreading this $1 billion over 30 days amounts to approximately $33.33 million in daily purchases. In the Bitcoin network's average daily trading volume of $30-50 billion, this represents only 0.1%-0.2%, unlikely to have a significant impact. Using the TWAP algorithm, the purchase volume per minute is only about $23,000, barely noticeable even in daily fluctuations. Therefore, the estimated price boost is within 0.5%-1.5%.

Secondly, as a strategic purchase by the world's largest exchange, it is seen as an endorsement of Bitcoin by an authoritative institution, which may trigger an additional confidence premium. Therefore, taking into account the combined effect of direct buying and market sentiment, the potential price increase of Bitcoin may exceed 1%, reaching the level of 2%-5%.

Finally, the support mechanism. Since Binance has committed to buying more shares if the price falls below 800 million, this mechanism effectively establishes a strong support level. When the price experiences a significant pullback, the market anticipates Binance's intervention, which helps to curb the decline.

In summary, Binance's phased purchase of one billion US dollars is expected to have only a mild boost to Bitcoin and will not cause a violent surge in the short term. However, it provides an invisible support for market sentiment and prices, reflecting more of a long-term bullish confidence in Bitcoin than short-term speculation.

III. Survival Rules for Retail Investors in a Bear Market: Seeking Defensive Returns

When institutions are allocating underlying assets, how should retail investors respond? Since they cannot change the market like large funds, the best approach is not to waste resources.

In the current downturn, besides passively holding cryptocurrency, utilizing platform activities for low-risk wealth management is a necessary supplement to weather the storm. Looking at Binance's recent wealth management initiatives, the logic is very clear:

1. Low-threshold "flexible protection": Booster wealth management for USD1, with a maximum annualized return of approximately 8%. Plan A for $U, which includes deposits into pools B/C, offers an annualized return of approximately 15%.

Suitable for casual players who don't want to put in the effort.

2. Advanced "Combination Punch": For experienced investors with $U or BNB, staking and investing (such as Venus or Lista protocols) can yield compound returns of 15%-20%.

In short, the core logic is not to gamble on illusory returns with high leverage at this stage, but to follow the example of institutions and increase the depth of holdings through prudent financial management methods to ensure that you survive the winter.

IV. Conclusion: Companions in the Cold Winter

The bear market will eventually pass, but only those who survive will be eligible to welcome spring.

Currently, this prolonged crypto winter continues to test the patience of every market participant. Through the Hong Kong Consensus Conference, we have seen the true choices made by leading exchanges.

As the old saying goes, "If winter comes, can spring be far behind?" The fact that some are preparing for the worst during a bear market also means that the dawn will eventually break. Until then, all we can do is remain rational and patient, manage risk effectively, and cherish our resources.