Mid-February Check: Momentum or Exhaustion?

US inflation continues to cool, with CPI around 2.4% y/y and core inflation near 2.5%. That keeps expectations of rate cuts later in 2026 alive. However, markets are increasingly sensitive to any shift in Fed rhetoric. The narrative is supportive, but not risk-free.

US equities remain elevated but momentum has slowed. The S&P 500 is holding near 6,800, while the Nasdaq shows more volatility as investors rotate away from crowded tech trades. Leadership is narrowing, and pullbacks are becoming sharper. 📉

The US 10-year yield is trading close to 4.0%, reflecting a bond market that is cautiously optimistic on inflation but not fully convinced about aggressive easing. The dollar remains relatively firm, limiting upside in some risk assets. 💵

Gold is consolidating near the 5,000 area after its strong rally, suggesting either healthy digestion or early signs of fatigue. Oil is stable, with Brent trading in the high-60s, as supply headlines balance global demand expectations. 🛢️

bitcoin is hovering around 68,000–69,000 after several attempts to push decisively above 70,000. The structure remains constructive, but momentum is clearly less explosive than earlier in the rally. ⚡

So what is it — momentum or exhaustion?

If breadth improves and participation widens, the rally can extend. If gains stay narrow and volatility increases on declines, the market may be entering a corrective phase. The next few sessions will be crucial.

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📍 Mid-February Check: Momentum or Exhaustion? 🤔📊 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.