Analysis: The bear market may continue until mid-2027; close attention should be paid to the crossover signal between the 90-day and 365-day moving averages.

PANews reported on February 17th that crypto analyst Axel stated in a blog post that the current bear market cycle began at an all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator confirms this, reaching a cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025, exhibiting a typical lag compared to price, and is now reversing downwards.

Historically, such reversals typically initiate an accumulation phase lasting 1.1 to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both started in exactly the same way, with the green line reversing from its peak and entering a sustained downward phase, causing prices to fall. The current pattern is structurally identical.

If historical patterns repeat themselves, this accumulation period could last until at least the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation of until mid-2027. A key confirmation signal is a downward reversal of the 90-day moving average and a break below the 365-day moving average (0.02622). Until this crossover occurs, the possibility of a medium-term cycle reset and a resumption of the upward trend remains.