ICP Technical Analysis Feb 18

ICP is trading in a clear downtrend with LH/LL structure in the altcoin market; is a trend change possible with BOS above $2.6048, or will it continue towards $2.28 support? Market structure strengthens bearish signals.

Market Structure Overview

ICP’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. Price is trading at $2.34 level, with a %1.84 decline in the last 24 hours, staying within $2.33-$2.43 range. Price failing to hold above EMA20 ($2.58) shows a briefly bearish short-term outlook. Supertrend signal is bearish and $3.00 resistance is foreseeable. In MTF structure, there are 11 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This supports the overall bearish pressure. RSI at 35.59 approaching oversold region, MACD with positive histogram indicator giving weak bullish divergence signal, but insufficient for structural change. Market sustains LH/LL (Lower Highs/Lower Lows) pattern confirming downtrend. For HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows) outlook, closes above $2.4384 and $2.6048 resistances are first required.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

HH/HL structure sought for uptrend, but not visible currently. Positive histogram on MACD, RSI at 35.59 carries divergence potential. If $2.2810 swing low holds, HH formation possible towards $2.6048. However, no bullish trend confirmation without BOS above EMA20 ($2.58). Bullish continuation target $4.0250 (score 30/100), but structural support weak.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend strong with LH/LL: Latest swing high $2.6048, low $2.2810 in lower structure. High risk of LL continuation without breaking $2.4384 resistance. Bearish breakdown target $0.5581 (score 22/100). Supertrend bearish, additional pressure possible on altcoins with BTC correlation.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Critical BOS levels for structural change: Bullish BOS with daily close above $2.6048 (swing high, score 76/100) brings CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmation and initiates HH/HL. This opens path to $3.00 by surpassing $2.58 EMA20. Bearish BOS: Close below $2.2810 (score 65/100) forms new LL and leads to $2.00 support (score 62/100). Holding these levels does not invalidate current structure; breaks signal trend change. MTF resistance weight on 3D/1W (around $2.6048) reinforces downtrend.

Swing Points and Importance

Latest Swing Highs

Latest swing high $2.6048 (score 76/100), main resistance; break is bullish BOS. Lower resistance $2.4384 (score 64/100), local test point. These levels confirm downtrend by forming LH. Retest offers short opportunities, breakout allows long positions. These swings critical for ICP Spot Analysis.

Latest Swing Lows

Latest swing low $2.2810 (score 65/100), main support; bounce expected if holds. Lower support $2.0000 (score 62/100), MTF aligned. These lows complete LL pattern. Breakdown targets $0.5581. In ICP Futures Analysis, stop-loss should be set according to these lows.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,332 level with %0.79 decline in downtrend; supports $68,050 / $65,498 / $62,910, resistances $70,249 / $78,145 / $83,750. BTC Supertrend bearish, high correlation on altcoins like ICP: If BTC continues decline, ICP tests $2.28. BTC recovery above $70k could trigger $2.60 breakout on ICP. Dominance increase delays altcoin rally; ICP structure dependent on BTC.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

ICP structure bearish with LH/LL; downtrend continues without $2.6048 BOS. If $2.2810 holds, short-term bounce, but no reversal without above EMA20. MTF resistance weight requires patience for CHoCH. Traders manage risk with swing levels: Long above $2.2810, short below $2.4384. No news, stay technical-focused. Market structures dynamic; monitor daily closes.