Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Trades at $67K as Wave C Risk Points Toward $40K

As of February 18, 2026, the Bitcoin price today hovers near $67,000, reflecting modest weakness and continued rejection below the psychological $70,000 barrier. While short-term technical indicators show early signs of stabilization, broader cycle analysis suggests the market could still be navigating a larger corrective phase.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s latest price action remains trapped within a defined range, keeping traders focused on whether this consolidation represents a base for recovery or the setup for another leg lower.

Consolidation Between $65K and $72K Keeps Traders Cautious

Since early February, the Bitcoin BTC price has moved sideways between roughly $65,700 and $71,700. This tight range reflects a balance between dip buyers and sellers defending overhead resistance.

Jaxweah’s analysis highlights a potential double-top formation near $109,000 and $126,000, projecting a decline toward $41,500 by March 2026 based on price patterns traced back to the 2021 low around $17,500. Source: Jax via X

Technical indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart recently rebounded from oversold territory and now reads near 35, suggesting bearish momentum is easing. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flashed a bullish crossover, often interpreted as an early recovery signal.

A sustained move above $71,746 could open the door toward $73,000 and potentially higher resistance zones. However, a decisive close below $65,729 may shift focus back to $60,000 support. For now, the price of Bitcoin remains range-bound, with neither side asserting clear control.

Wave Structure Points to Potential $40K Retest

Beyond the short-term chart, several analysts are examining a broader Elliott Wave structure that traces back to the 2021 bottom near $17,500. One widely shared chart outlines a potential double-top formation near $109,000 and $126,000, projecting a longer-term decline toward the $41,500 region by March 2026.

Bitcoin may decline toward $58K in the short term, rebound to around $85K mid-cycle, and ultimately face a deeper correction below $40K later this year. Source: Xanrox on TradingView

According to this interpretation, the drop from $126,000 to around $59,000 marked Wave A of a larger ABC correction. The current consolidation could represent Wave B, a recovery phase that may stretch toward $85,000 or even $90,000 if bullish momentum strengthens.

However, failure to reclaim that supply zone could pave the way for Wave C, with downside projections ranging between $40,000 and $34,000. Some Fibonacci-based models place deeper retracement targets near $32,000, aligning with the 50%–61.8% retracement zone observed in prior cycles.

While such projections remain conditional, they are consistent with historical correction patterns seen after previous Bitcoin all-time high cycles.

Bitcoin and the Broader Market Cycle Reset

The ongoing correction is unfolding against a broader macro backdrop. Historically, Bitcoin market cap expansions have coincided with periods of abundant global liquidity and accommodative financial conditions. Conversely, tightening cycles often coincide with prolonged consolidation or drawdowns.

Bitcoin appears to have entered a macro corrective phase after peaking at $126,000, with a potential Wave B rebound toward the $85,000–$90,000 resistance zone underway. Source: TradingView

Cycle analysts argue that the October rejection near $126,000 confirmed a macro top for the current phase. Since then, the price structure has shifted from impulsive advances to corrective formations. This transition mirrors prior multi-year resets that ultimately laid the groundwork for future expansion phases.

Long-term Bitcoin price forecasts for 2030 models remain structurally bullish, with some projections envisioning six-figure valuations once the corrective phase is complete. However, such scenarios depend heavily on liquidity conditions, institutional participation, and regulatory clarity around products like the Bitcoin ETF market.

Key Levels to Watch in the Near Term

In the immediate outlook, $68,300 stands out as a pivot level. A recovery above that threshold would strengthen the argument for an extended Wave B rally, potentially targeting $70,800, $72,970, and even $76,600.

Conversely, sustained weakness below $65,700 would increase the probability of a retest of $60,000. A break of that support could validate deeper BTC price prediction 2026 scenarios pointing toward the $40,000 zone.

For long-term participants evaluating Bitcoin predictions, context remains critical. Corrections of 50% or more have occurred in previous cycles without invalidating the broader adoption narrative. Still, volatility at this stage of the cycle underscores the importance of disciplined risk management.

A Market at an Inflection Point

The current Bitcoin price prediction landscape reflects a market balancing short-term recovery signals against longer-term corrective risks. At $67,000, price action does not yet confirm a breakdown, but neither does it invalidate the possibility of Wave C.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $67,210, down 1.32% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

As traders monitor momentum indicators and macro signals, the coming weeks may determine whether this consolidation evolves into a renewed advance or a continuation of the broader cycle reset. For now, the structure suggests patience is warranted, with $70,000 acting as a near-term ceiling and $60,000 serving as critical support in an increasingly pivotal phase for Bitcoin future price direction.