MetaPlanet Stock Price Faces 40% Crash Risk Despite 700% Revenue Surge

Key Insights:

• MetaPlanet stock price risks a 40% drop as the head and shoulders neckline sits at ¥293.
• FY2025 revenue surged 700%, but the $619 million loss was entirely non-cash Bitcoin valuation write-down.
• Chaikin Money Flow crossed below zero in February, showing big money leaving despite record results.

MetaPlanet stock price tells two completely different stories right now. The business delivered 700% revenue growth in FY2025. Headlines screamed about a $619 million loss. Both are true. But neither explains what the chart is doing.

A head-and-shoulders pattern is forming. Big money is leaving quietly. The neckline sits at ¥293, and breaking it risks a 40% drop.

Record Results Hide a Bearish MetaPlanet Stock Price Chart

MetaPlanet reported FY2025 earnings on Feb. 16. Revenue surged 700%, and the operating profit jumped 1,700%. Both numbers came entirely from the Bitcoin Income Business, which contributed 95% of total revenue. That income grew dramatically over the year, from ¥82 million in Q3 2024 to ¥4.25 billion in Q4 2025.

The $619 million net loss dominated media coverage. Most outlets treated it as a catastrophic result. It was not. Japanese accounting rules require companies to mark Bitcoin holdings to market value at year’s end. Bitcoin ended 2025 near $85,000 to $90,000, well below MetaPlanet’s average acquisition cost of $107,000 per coin.

MetaPlanet Results | Source: X

The resulting ¥102 billion write-down was entirely non-cash. No Bitcoin was sold, and no money left the company. The operational business remained profitable throughout.

MetaPlanet now holds 35,102 Bitcoin, making it the fourth largest corporate holder globally. MicroStrategy sits far ahead with 714,000 Bitcoin, but MetaPlanet runs a fundamentally different model. Rather than pure accumulation, MetaPlanet generates yield from its holdings through options income.

The company targets 100,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2026 and 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027, representing 1% of global supply.

Big Money Already Leaving

Chaikin Money Flow crossed below zero in early February. It has trended consistently lower since then. CMF measures whether large institutional money flows into or out of an asset. Falling CMF during a period of record revenue growth is an unusual signal. It suggests sophisticated investors are selling MetaPlanet stock despite the strong operational results.

Big Money Leaving | Source: TradingView

The reason likely comes down to the Bitcoin price. MetaPlanet stock also trades as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. When Bitcoin rises, the stock amplifies those gains.

When Bitcoin falls, the stock amplifies the losses. Until Bitcoin recovers, the unrealized losses on the balance sheet continue weighing on investor sentiment, regardless of how well the options business performs.

The 2026 guidance projects revenue of ¥16 billion, representing 80% additional growth. Operating profit guidance of ¥11.4 billion suggests the options income model continues scaling. Management offered no net income forecast, citing Bitcoin price volatility as the primary variable outside their control.

MetaPlanet Stock Price Neckline at ¥293 Decides Everything

The head-and-shoulders pattern in the MetaPlanet stock price is the most pressing technical concern. The left shoulder formed during the November to December rally. The head peaked in mid-January near ¥650. The right shoulder was completed in early February near ¥372. The neckline connecting the lows between each shoulder sits at ¥293.

Breaking below ¥293 triggers the measured move projection. The distance from the head to the neckline added below the neckline gives the downside target near ¥164. That represents approximately 40% additional downside from current levels near ¥338.

MetaPlanet Stock Price Levels | Source: X

Reclaiming ¥372 is the first step toward weakening the bearish pattern. Breaking above that level would indicate the right shoulder failed to complete properly, and the head-and-shoulders structure would lose validity. MetaPlanet stock price sits between two very different outcomes. Record operational results point in one direction. The chart and CMF point to another.

The post MetaPlanet Stock Price Faces 40% Crash Risk Despite 700% Revenue Surge appeared first on The Coin Republic.