Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY Act could pass by April as Polymarket odds hit 85%

Brad Garlinghouse has said the US CLARITY Act could pass as early as April, adding momentum to a growing narrative that regulatory clarity for digital assets may finally be within reach.

Garlinghouse’s comments, made during a recent television interview, came as prediction markets sharply increased their confidence in the bill’s prospects. 

Data from Polymarket shows traders now assigning an 85% probability that the legislation will be signed into law in 2026, up from around 60% earlier this year.

Prediction markets signal rising confidence

The jump in Polymarket odds suggests that confidence in the CLARITY Act has hardened beyond industry rhetoric. Prediction markets aggregate capital-weighted sentiment, meaning the surge reflects traders backing their views with money rather than opinion alone.

The move higher followed a series of public remarks from industry leaders, including Garlinghouse, who framed the bill as a meaningful—if imperfect—step toward resolving long-standing uncertainty around how digital assets are regulated in the US.

Ripple executive frames April as a key window

Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, said the industry is “closer than ever” to clear rules and pointed to April as a realistic timeline for passage, provided negotiations continue to move forward.

Ripple has been one of the most vocal supporters of market-structure legislation, following its multi-year legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

Garlinghouse has consistently argued that prolonged regulatory ambiguity has pushed innovation offshore and disadvantaged US-based crypto firms.

Industry alignment remains uneven

While the Polymarket data suggests optimism, industry consensus is not universal.

Some firms have expressed reservations about aspects of the CLARITY Act, particularly around how authority would be divided between regulators and how certain crypto products would be classified.

Still, the combination of public executive support and rising market-priced probabilities indicates that traders increasingly see passage as the base case rather than a long shot.

Policy momentum versus market reality

The growing confidence in Washington contrasts with the broader crypto market, which remains sensitive to macro conditions and liquidity.

For now, the CLARITY Act’s progress appears to be viewed as a medium-term structural shift rather than an immediate market catalyst.

If the bill does advance on the timeline Garlinghouse outlined, it would mark one of the most consequential regulatory milestones for the US crypto industry to date.

Final Summary

• Brad Garlinghouse’s April timeline aligns with a sharp rise in market-priced confidence around the CLARITY Act.
• Polymarket odds at 85% suggest traders increasingly expect regulatory clarity despite remaining industry divisions.