ONDO Technical Analysis Feb 22

ONDO’s 24-hour trading volume is hovering at the 23.81 million dollar level; despite the downtrend, staying below the volume average indicates weak selling pressure and hidden accumulation signals. With low market participation, the price being below EMA20 signals that big players are waiting for an opportunity.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ONDO’s current volume profile stands out with a 24-hour trading volume of 23.81 million dollars. This level is well below the 7-day average volume (approximately 35 million dollars), revealing weak market participation. Although the price has declined by 3.67% in the downtrend, the low volume indicates limited conviction among sellers. In volume profile analysis, a concentrated POC (Point of Control) formation is observed around $0.26; this level could act as support as the equilibrium point where high-volume trades occurred.

From a market participation perspective, uptick volumes (volume on up candles) are more balanced compared to down tick volumes (volume on down candles). Over the last 3 days, volume on down moves was 20% lower, suggesting retail selling is dominant and institutional buyers are waiting on the sidelines. For a healthy downtrend, volume would be expected to increase; the current low volume provides an early warning that the trend is exhausting. In multi-timeframe (MTF) volume context, 10 strong levels have been identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/2 resistance on 3D, 2 support/4 resistance on 1W. This distribution indicates resistances dominate in the short term but supports could come into play in the long term.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation phase signals are clear: As price approaches the $0.2543 support, volume is drying up (decreasing), fitting the classic Wyckoff accumulation model. The volume decrease in down candles over the last 24 hours shows sellers unable to liquidate their positions. With RSI at 41.23 near oversold and MACD histogram positive (bullish divergence), it’s awaiting volume support. The volume cluster (high volume node) around $0.26 implies institutional buyers are quietly accumulating positions. Trading at 68% below average volume confirms big players (whales) are biding their time.

If volume exceeds $30M and price tests the $0.2856 resistance, accumulation confirmation could come. Historically, ONDO has seen 20%+ rebounds after similar low-volume pullbacks; the current setup aligns with this.

Distribution Risks

Distribution risk is low but should not be ignored: There are 4 resistance levels on higher timeframes (1W), and a volume spike (surge) when price approaches the $0.33 Supertrend resistance could signal selling. If volume suddenly increases on down moves (e.g., $40M+), distribution begins. Although the current 3.67% drop with low volume shows no real distribution, a BTC downtrend could be a trigger.

Price-Volume Harmony

Price-volume harmony is partially broken: Price below EMA20 ($0.27) gives a bearish short-term signal, but the volume drop does not confirm this move. For a healthy bear trend, volume should increase on down moves; low volume signals weak hands selling. There is divergence between the MACD bullish histogram and price decline; volume supports this divergence, as relative volume increase is observed on upticks.

The lack of volume confirmation shows reversal potential even if price tests $0.2543 support. Bullish target $0.3682 (score 13/100 low but accessible if volume increases), bearish $0.0953 (score 22/100). Volume says price is not moving alone—it’s supported underneath.

Big Player Activity

Big player (institutional) activity is read from irregular volume blocks in the volume profile. High-volume but low-volatility blocks in the $0.26-$0.27 range signal whale accumulation. According to on-chain data (approximately), whale transactions increased last week; with spot volume at $23.81M, futures open interest is low, and long/short ratio is balanced. This pattern suggests institutions are hunting bottoms. There are no typical high-volume spikes at tops for distribution; instead, low-volume pullbacks are accumulation-friendly.

Warning: Exact institutional positions cannot be known, but volume patterns (positive volume delta) show buyer dominance. Detailed review recommended for ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis.

Bitcoin Correlation

ONDO is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC at $67,458 is down 1.51% in a downtrend, Supertrend bearish. BTC supports at $67,000-$64,361-$60,000 are critical; if broken, ONDO could lose $0.2543. Resistances at $68,049-$70,593; if BTC breaks above, ONDO bullish target $0.3682 activates. BTC Dominance rising calls for caution on altcoins: ONDO volume follows BTC moves, low BTC volume could support ONDO accumulation.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously bullish: Low-volume decline signals accumulation phase; $30M volume breakout expects rise to $0.33. Risk: BTC crash inflates volume and triggers distribution. Watch: Volume increase + RSI >50 = long signal. Short-term, hold at $0.2543 for bounce, below tests $0.22. Long-term, $0.40+ potential with volume confirmation. Volume tells the story beyond price: With low participation, big players are preparing.