AERO Technical Analysis Feb 23

AERO’s RSI is at the 39.21 level wandering in the neutral zone, while MACD signals bullish momentum with a positive histogram; despite the short-term downtrend, volume-supported recovery signals are starting to form.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

AERO’s current price is at the 0.30 dollar level and has squeezed into the daily range of 0.30-0.34 dollars with a 7.15% drop in the last 24 hours. The overall trend direction continues downward, with the price remaining below EMA20 (0.33 dollars) and the Supertrend indicator also giving a bearish signal. However, there are mixed signals in the momentum indicators: although RSI is in the neutral zone, the MACD histogram is positive and expanding, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening and signaling a potential base formation. Volume is at a medium level of 13.17 million dollars, partially supporting the price drop but accumulation patterns are being observed in recent hours. When examining multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment, a total of 11 strong levels were detected in the 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance in 1D, 2S/2R in 3D, and 2S/4R distribution in 1W, with resistance dominance prevailing in higher timeframes. This structure shows that momentum is under downward pressure but reaction buying could increase as it approaches support levels. Key supports at 0.2725 (71/100 points) and 0.2939 (66/100) dollars, resistance at the 0.3432 (63/100) level should be monitored.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is currently at 39.21 and positioned in the neutral zone (30-70 range), just above the oversold threshold. Despite the price drop in the last 24 hours, no clear regular bearish divergence is seen in RSI; on the contrary, there are signs of flattening at low levels and slight bullish hidden divergence. On the daily chart, while the price makes a new low, RSI holds above the previous low, highlighting that momentum loss is slowing and bringing a potential reversal signal to the forefront. Looking at the weekly RSI, it shows stable movement around 45, and not descending into the oversold zone may indicate the downtrend is in its exhaustion phase. For divergence confirmation, RSI dropping below 30 and rebounding quickly or breaking above 50 is awaited; the current structure carries potential to turn from neutral in favor of bullish.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 39.21 is close to oversold but has not yet triggered, this level has historically been a recovery starting point for AERO with 60% probability. The 0.2725 support is critical for entries below 30; if broken, RSI could drop to the 20s and deep bearish momentum may activate. On the other hand, a break above 50 increases momentum confluence. When confirmed with volume, RSI signals gain reliability, but the current volume drop weakens alignment with RSI.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in bullish status, with the histogram positive and showing expansion tendency; the signal line has potential to cross the MACD line from below. On the daily chart, although the MACD line is below the zero line, the shortening of histogram bars shows that downtrend momentum is decreasing. Despite the price drop in the last 24 hours, the histogram remaining positive confirms hidden bullish divergence – momentum is rising as price falls. This dynamic could especially trigger a crossover around the 0.2939 support. In the weekly MACD, histogram contraction signals that the bearish trend is tiring; a zero line crossover would be the main bullish signal. If volume increase confirms histogram expansion, the short-term target of 0.3432 resistance can be reached.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is below EMA20 (0.33 dollars), squeezed between EMA9 and EMA12; the ribbon structure has narrowed and is downward sloping, showing short-term trend strength in favor of bears. However, approaching EMA50 (around 0.31) could signal a ribbon squeeze breakout. In terms of momentum, price dropping below EMA21 increases selling pressure, while a rebound closing above EMA9 ignites bullish momentum.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA50 (0.31) and EMA200 (around 0.35) are in support roles, critical for measuring trend strength as price touches them. The medium-term ribbon has flattened, long-term EMAs are downward sloping but slowing; this indicates momentum is seeking a bottom. Breaking EMA200 strengthens the deep bearish scenario, while holding above it forms the base for an altcoin rally.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is at 64,674 dollars with a 5.11% drop and in downtrend, Supertrend giving bearish signal. Main supports at 64,323 / 62,156 / 60,007 dollars, resistances at 65,550 / 68,198 / 71,069. AERO is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+), BTC dropping below 64k would push AERO to the 0.2725 support. BTC dominance increase suppresses momentum in altcoins; BTC breaking above 65.5k triggers opportunities in AERO Spot Analysis and AERO Futures Analysis for AERO. AERO momentum remains limited without BTC recovery.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

Momentum confluence is mixed: RSI neutral-bullish divergence, MACD positive histogram, and EMA ribbon contraction weaken the downtrend, but BTC pressure and Supertrend bearish signal require caution. If the 0.2725 support holds, bullish target is 0.5096 (low score), while a break brings bearish 0.1037 into play. Volume increase and RSI breaking 50 are the main bullish triggers; in the current structure, momentum traders should watch support reactions. Overall outlook has potential to shift from neutral toward bullish, aggressive positions risky without surpassing MTF resistances.