The MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price is encountering heightened downside pressure amid institutional outflows, despite a partial rebound tied to its massive Bitcoin treasury.

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) shares have recovered roughly 30% from early February lows around $107, yet fresh challenges loom as major funds disclose significant reductions or complete disposals of positions via recent 13F filings. These quarterly reports, which lag by about 45 days, capture shifts during the prior period of price weakness.

As of the latest close on February 23, 2026, MSTR traded at $123.71, down over 5% that day amid broader market dynamics and ongoing Bitcoin volatility. The stock remains approximately 20-23% lower over the past month and sharply declined over the trailing three months, reflecting sensitivity to crypto market sentiment.

MicroStrategy continues aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, recently announcing its 100th purchase by adding 592 BTC for about $39.8 million (average ~$67,286 per coin). Total holdings now stand at 717,722 BTC, acquired at an average cost of roughly $76,020 per coin (total investment ~$54.56 billion). With Bitcoin trading in the mid-$60,000s recently, this position shows substantial unrealized losses, amplifying MSTR’s correlation risks.

Institutional Exits Signal Eroding Confidence

Latest 13F disclosures highlight a trend of de-risking among mid-tier and specialized managers:

• Angeles Wealth Management and Wealth Watch Advisors fully liquidated holdings (100% reduction).
• Caitlin John LLC slashed exposure by 96.54%, retaining a minimal position.
• Kovitz Investment Group trimmed shares by ~19%, with position value dropping sharply (~62%).
• Atomi Financial Group reduced by ~18.6%, seeing value fall over 61%.
• Larger players like Invesco grew share count modestly (~14%) but still faced heavy value erosion (>46%) due to price declines.

These moves, reported during the recent downturn, suggest fading conviction among some allocators even as retail dip-buying provided temporary support.

Technical Picture Shows Fading Momentum

Chart analysis reveals concerning signals:

• Bearish divergence on RSI: Price made lower highs from late 2025 into February 2026, while RSI printed higher highs—indicating weakening upside strength in a prevailing downtrend.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV) has declined more aggressively than price since early February, pointing to dominant selling pressure over buying during the sideways consolidation.
• Money Flow Index (MFI) displays mild positive divergence with limited higher highs amid price stagnation, hinting at selective dip accumulation but insufficient to fuel sustained gains without broader participation.

The chart remains within a falling broadening wedge since late 2025, underscoring persistent uncertainty and volatility.

Critical Levels to Watch for MSTR

Upside breakout requires reclaiming $139, aligning with the 20-day EMA—a level that previously sparked ~15% rallies. Clearing this could target $163 or higher if momentum builds.

Downside vulnerability is more pronounced:

• Breach of $119 weakens the current formation.
• Fall below $106 (recent low zone) risks acceleration toward $96 and potentially $86, equating to 20-30% further declines from current levels.

MSTR’s performance hinges heavily on Bitcoin trends, given the company’s treasury strategy. Any prolonged BTC weakness could exacerbate selling.

With institutional conviction appearing strained, volume trends soft, and overhead resistance intact, MicroStrategy stock faces a pivotal juncture as trading resumes. Investors should monitor BTC price action closely alongside these technical thresholds for directional clues.