Visa (V) Stock: The AI Scenario That Spooked the Whole Payments Sector

TLDR

• Visa dropped 4.5% Monday after a Citrini Research post warned AI agents could route around card networks and undercut processing fees.
• The stock closed at $306.52, down from an opening of $319.04.
• Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% in the same session.
• Visa edged 0.2% higher in Tuesday premarket, recovering a small portion of losses.
• A $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants is still awaiting a judge’s approval.

Visa closed Monday at $306.52, down 4.5% after a research note suggested artificial intelligence could one day threaten the fees that underpin its business.

Visa Inc., V

The note came from Citrini Research, an independent firm. Published on Substack on Sunday, it described itself as “a scenario, not a prediction” — framing the piece as a hypothetical financial digest dated June 30, 2028.

In that fictional snapshot, U.S. unemployment had passed 10% and the S&P 500 had fallen 38% from its peak. AI displacing white-collar workers was the central cause.

Visa was named directly. Citrini argued that AI agents acting for consumers could seek out cheaper payment routes, putting the 2%-3% network and processing fees Visa depends on at risk. Stablecoins were mentioned as a potential alternative to traditional card rails.

The stock opened at $319.04, hit a session low of $304.71, and closed near the bottom of its range.

Payment Sector Sold Off Broadly

The pain spread across the sector. Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% in the same session. Visa and American Express ranked among the biggest drags on the Dow, per MarketWatch data.

The selloff raised questions about any business model built on collecting a small fee from every transaction — the so-called toll booth model that payment networks rely on.

Swipe Fee Settlement Still Unresolved

Visa also carries a separate legal overhang. In November, Visa and Mastercard put forward a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants over swipe fees. A judge has yet to sign off.

It’s worth noting that Visa doesn’t collect interchange fees directly — those go to card-issuing banks. Visa’s revenue comes from network and processing fees, which depend on transaction volume and cross-border activity staying healthy.

What’s Next for Visa

Visa nudged 0.2% higher in Tuesday premarket, reaching $307.09 — a modest recovery after the prior session’s losses.

Two investor events are on the calendar. Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell is set to appear at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Commercial & Money Movement Solutions President Chris Newkirk follows at the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.

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