AR Technical Analysis Feb 24

AR is positioned at a critical threshold at the 1.84$ level; while RSI at 29.75 is in the oversold region giving a bullish MACD signal, the overall downtrend and Supertrend resistance make both scenarios possible.

Current Market Situation

AR is currently trading at the 1.84$ level and moved in the 1.82$-1.96$ range with a 5.16% decline over the last 24 hours. Volume remains at a moderate level of 10.96M$, while the overall trend continues downward. RSI at 29.75 is in the oversold region, signaling a potential rebound, but although the MACD histogram has positive bars, momentum is weak. Price is trading below EMA20 (2.11$) and this draws a short-term bearish picture. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and the main resistance stands out at 2.38$. Critical support is at 1.7100$ (strength score 72/100), resistance at 1.8533$ (61/100). In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 11 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/5 resistances on 1W showing a predominantly bearish bias. There are no AR-specific breaking news in the market, general altcoin pressure prevails.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

For the upside scenario, a clear break above the 1.8533$ resistance is required first; a close above this level could reverse short-term momentum. The oversold condition on RSI and MACD’s positive histogram provide support, while volume increase should test EMA20 (2.11$). For Supertrend to turn bullish, breaking the 2.38$ resistance is critical; sequential breaks of resistances on 3D and 1W timeframes in MTF (e.g., the first resistance level on 1W) strengthen the scenario. Potential trigger: General market recovery or positive development from the AR ecosystem. Invalidation for this scenario: Drop below 1.7100$ support – a close below this level invalidates the upside.

Target Levels

First target 2.11$ (EMA20), then 2.38$ Supertrend resistance, and finally 2.8178$ (strength score 30). Reaching this level provides approximately 53% return from the current 1.84$. What to watch: Volume increase by +50% and RSI rising above 50. In the longer term, clearing 1W MTF resistances makes above 3$ possible, but the key for this scenario is the 1.8533$ breakout.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a break of the 1.7100$ support; a close below this level accelerates the downtrend and invites panic selling. While Supertrend remains bearish, trading below EMA20 continues, and if the MACD histogram turns negative, momentum shifts downward. In MTF analysis, the weight of 5 resistances on the 1W timeframe hinders recovery. Risk factors: Deepening of BTC downtrend, general altcoin pressure, and volume decline. Scenario invalidation: Strong close above 1.8533$ – this confirms upside and cancels the downside.

Protection Levels

First protection level 1.7100$, next target around 1.50$ intermediate support on breakout, final bearish target 0.9212$ (strength score 22). This level means nearly 50% decline from the current price. What to watch: If RSI drops below 20, oversold deepens, but volume confirmation is essential for bearish continuation. In the long term, sequential breaks of 1D/3D supports could bring the 0.80$ range into play.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision point between 1.8533$ resistance and 1.7100$ support; a volume-backed close above 1.8533$ confirms upside, below confirms downside. Confirmation signals: For upside, RSI divergence + bullish MACD crossover; for downside, Supertrend sell signal + downward volume spike. Daily closes are critical; trendline breaks on the 4-hour chart give early warnings. Follow live data from AR Spot Analysis and AR Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 63,259$ level with 4.22% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish signal poses risk for altcoins. As a highly correlated altcoin to BTC, AR faces increased pressure if BTC breaks 62,910$ support – testing below this level accelerates AR’s 1.71$ break. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 64,620$ resistance, AR upside scenario is supported. Rising BTC dominance delays altcoin rotation; key BTC levels: Supports 62,910$/60,008$, resistances 64,620$/66,356$. AR traders should prioritize monitoring BTC movement.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios are open for AR; traders should enter positions by evaluating the risk/reward ratio (balanced to targets currently). Monitoring list: 1.8533$/1.7100$ breaks, RSI/MACD divergences, volume changes, and BTC 62,910$ level. This analysis is a tool to understand market dynamics – do your own research. Weekly closes clarify the long-term direction.