Coinbase Conducted a Technical Analysis of Bitcoin and Revealed Its Expectations: “There Are Two Scenarios for the Price”

In its latest analysis report on the Bitcoin market, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase evaluated price levels this time in conjunction with “gamma exposure” data from the options market.

According to the company, considering current price movements, the strongest support cluster is forming around $60,000, while the first strong resistance band is at the $82,000 level.

The report argues that investors should pay attention not only to technical levels but also to the hidden liquidity dynamics created by positioning in the options market. Gamma exposure is defined as an indicator summarizing how options brokers hedge against price movements. These hedging transactions sometimes act as a “shock absorber” that suppresses price fluctuations, while at other times they can become a catalyst that accelerates the movement.

The report explains the “gamma” concept as one of the key metrics measuring how quickly an option’s price sensitivity changes as the underlying asset price fluctuates. When brokers are in a positive gamma position, they act to balance the market by selling when the price is rising and buying when it is falling. This generally leads to reduced volatility and the price becoming consolidated around certain levels. Especially as long expiry dates approach, the probability of the price “nailing” to specific strike prices increases.

In contrast, the opposite mechanism is at work in negative gamma zones. Hedging flows, where prices rise and fall, can strengthen the market trend. This “buy on the rise, sell on the fall” cycle can accelerate breakouts and lead to sharp liquidation movements. According to Coinbase, in such zones, strategies of buying at support or selling at resistance become less reliable on the first attempt.

When technical levels and gamma data are evaluated together, it is stated that $82,000 is the first key threshold for an upward move, while $60,000 is the critical shelf level that should prevent a downward acceleration. According to the report, there is a significant negative gamma band in the $60,000–$70,000 range, while significant positive gamma clusters are noted around $85,000 and $90,000. This picture indicates that declines towards $60,000 may accelerate, while rises towards $90,000 may progress more slowly and in a more consolidated manner.

Related News: Exchange Analysts Assessed the Possible Movements of the Bitcoin Price After Today

Coinbase also considered various possible scenarios. If Bitcoin approaches the $82,000 level but fails to sustain itself above it, attempts at an upward breakout may fail due to strong resistance. In this case, defined risky downward option strategies may be more advantageous. However, if $82,000 is surpassed and begins to act as support, the likelihood of a continuation towards higher liquidity bands may increase. Nevertheless, due to the positive gamma concentration in the $85,000-$90,000 range, the rise may exhibit a volatile and sideways pattern.

In the downward scenario, the $60,000 level is critically important. If this area is tested and then quickly recovered after a sharp decline, upward asymmetric opportunities may arise. However, due to the negative gamma, a warning is issued that the descent to this level could involve sharp and extreme movements. If $60,000 is lost and not recovered, the decline could accelerate, therefore risk management should take center stage.

*This is not investment advice.

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