Polymarket, Kalshi Lead As Prediction Markets Weekly Volume Surpasses $5B

Key Insights

• Polymarket and Kalshi lead as prediction market notional volume hits $5.37B, an increase of 0.31% in the last week.
• Prediction markets hit a record value of 38 million transactions in the past week.
• Traders on the prediction markets were pricing in strong odds of further downside for crypto in 2026.

The prediction markets sector of crypto is becoming key in the sector, with participants now betting on the information the market is offering. After the launch of Polymarket, where it partnered with X (formerly Twitter), other platforms followed with a similar approach.

The competition is rising across these platforms, threatening the position of Polymarket as a leader in this sector. Trading activity on these platforms is skyrocketing, with the previous week’s data affirming this outlook.

From betting on market direction to decisions in the industry, these platforms offered a wide variety of events to predict. As a result, volume and transactions spiked during this period.

Prediction Markets Weekly Volume Explodes

The weekly notional volume of prediction markets rose by a mere 0.37% on average. However, the magnitude of the total volume is something to take note of. As per CoinMarketCap, this volume reached the $5.37 billion mark, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for the largest share. The difference between the last two weeks was only $10 million.

The data showed that Kalshi had a volume of $2.59 billion, an uptick of 6.75%. Polymarket, on the other hand, traded about $1.82 billion in volume, which was a decline of 3.18% this week. Other platforms that pulled significant volumes were Opinion, Predict, and Limitless.

Predict saw the biggest increase in volume of more than 19%, while ForecastEx was the weakest, as its activity declined by 48.84%.

Despite this performance, some participants argued that these markets were just glorified gambling platforms that had been repackaged differently. That did not deter traders who were becoming rampant with their bets.

Polymarket and Kalshi Lead in Number of Transactions

In terms of the number of transactions, the sector hit a record high of 38.01 million. Polymarket led with 22.58 million transactions, as Kalshi followed with about 15 million. Other platforms did not see much of the activities, as per data from Dune Analytics.

These transactions continued to rise as traders flooded Polymarket to bet on which platform ZachXBT would expose for insider trading. In fact, these bets sat at a $3 million valuation, with Meteora leading with 43% of participants betting on it.

Meteora was the launch hub for Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania (MELANIA), which were accused of insider trading and rug pulls. Hence, the bets could be true but were yet to be confirmed.

As per Lookonchain data, a user placed a bet worth $5,891, accusing Meteora. The trader amplified the prediction by depositing $11.5K USDC into Hyperliquid, then shorting MET with 3x leverage. The trader sold 186,435 MET valued at $33K. These activities showed how these markets were providing liquidity as participants poured capital into their bets.

It also offered a glimpse of where traders saw the market was heading.

Traders Brace for Extended Weakness as Bearish Bets Build

As per Polymarket, traders were pricing in strong odds of further downside for cryptos in 2026. About 65% of participants were convinced Bitcoin (BTC) could drop below $50K. For Ethereum (ETH), 78% of those betting predicted a drop below $1.50K, and odds were rising.

However, most traders predicted BTC could fall to $55K or below. With the odds of a potential continuation of crypto market weakness rising, the crypto market could for sure do so. This is because the market usually reacts to activity, and these bets screamed more bearishness.

Altogether, prediction markets were becoming an integral part of crypto trading with the information now being traded. That meant users can use these platforms to determine market-wide sentiment.

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