US index futures hold recovery into New York as S&P 500 leads, Nasdaq tests resistance

Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures trade above key session anchors in London hours after Tuesday’s rebound, but Nasdaq still needs acceptance above its upper gate to confirm broader upside continuation.

US futures trading desk report Feb 25, 2026

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, London to New York session

The three major US index futures contracts are holding constructive positions during the London session following yesterday’s recovery, but the quality of that recovery is not equal across all three.

S&P 500 futures (ES) currently show the cleanest recovery structure heading into New York, with price holding above the central pivot, POC, and around/just above the upper-gate zone, supported by positive delta and a strong structural anchor at 6,866.50 (where the intraday CP and daily CP align).

Dow futures (YM) also remain in a constructive position, trading above the central pivot and POC inside the upper-gate decision zone. The setup is firm, but New York still needs to confirm acceptance for continuation.

Nasdaq futures (NQ/MNQ) are improving and moving in the same direction, but they remain the key confirmation contract into New York. Price is above the CP and POC, which is constructive, but still below the upper gate — a zone that has capped upside rotation since Feb. 17.

In short:

• ES looks strongest.
• Dow is constructive.
• Nasdaq is improving, but still needs to prove acceptance through resistance.

That cross-index alignment will matter at the New York open. If all three hold above the session value and gate support, continuation becomes more credible. If Nasdaq stalls again while ES and Dow remain firm, expect a more uneven and rotational session.

Dow Futures trading desk report

Dow futures (YM) London session: Price is holding above the POC and inside the upper gate after yesterday’s recovery. 49,208 remains the key support for continuation toward 49,428, while a loss of POC shifts focus back toward the CP at 48,852.

Dow Jones Futures (YM) – London session update

Dow futures enter the London-to-New York handoff in a firmer position, holding above the POC after yesterday’s recovery, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also remain in key decision zones. The broader structure remains unchanged, which keeps the same major levels in play for today’s session.

Major intraday levels (Dow Jones Futures)

• Upper range: 50,360.
• Central pivot (CP): 48,852.
• Lower range: 47,344.
• POC: 49,230.
• Upper gate: 49,208 – 49,428.
• Lower gate: 48,496 – 48,276.

Current structure (London Session)

As of this update, London session price is trading at 49,290, above both the central pivot (48,852) and POC (49,230).

That positioning keeps the market in recovery mode following yesterday’s rebound, but price is still trading inside an important decision zone.

• If price holds above the POC and the lower edge of the upper gate (49,208), the move can continue to press toward 49,428.
• If price slips back below the POC, the first test is likely the 49,208 gate level, followed by internal reference levels:
• • 49,124.
  • 49,072.
  • 49,030.
  • 48,988.
  • 48,936.
    Before a possible move back toward the CP at 48,852..
• A loss of the CP would shift focus back to the lower gate (48,496 – 48,276) and reopen downside pressure.

TPO/Order-flow read

• Structure state: Recovery phase inside upper-gate decision zone (above POC, below upper-gate top).
• Internal TPO structure: Balanced-to-firm.
• Delta: Neutral.

Price is trading above the POC and within the upper-gate zone, which is a constructive sign after yesterday’s recovery. The key now is acceptance:

• Acceptance above 49,208 supports continuation within the upper gate and keeps 49,428 in play.
• Failure to hold inside the gate would likely return price to the POC, where the market will decide whether to rotate or continue.

The recovery structure starts to weaken on acceptance back below the POC, and loses momentum more clearly below the CP (48,852).

London to New York session note

New York opening flows often retest the London session value area first, so watch whether price accepts above the POC / upper-gate base or rejects back into rotation.

Watch ES and Nasdaq futures for confirmation: if all three hold above their session value and gate support, continuation becomes more credible; if Dow holds while ES/NQ fail, upside progress may slow and become more rotational.

Key Level to Watch Now

49,208 (upper-gate base): Holding above this level keeps 49,428 in play; losing it increases rotation risk back toward the POC and potentially the CP (48,852).

S&P 500 futures trading desk report

S&P 500 futures (ES) London session: Price is holding above the central pivot and POC after yesterday’s recovery, with the upper gate (6,893–6,909) acting as the key decision zone for continuation into the New York session.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – London session update

S&P 500 futures are holding a firm position during the London session following yesterday’s recovery, with price trading above the central pivot, POC, and inside/just above the upper-gate zone. The broader structure remains unchanged, which keeps the same key levels in play heading into the New York session.

A key point on today’s ES map: the intraday central pivot and the daily central pivot are the same level (6,866.50), making it one of the most important references for today’s session.

Major intraday levels (S&P 500 Futures)

• Upper range: 6,979.50.
• Central pivot (CP): 6,866.50 (intraday and daily CP align).
• Lower range: 6,764.00.
• POC: 6,905.00.
• Upper gate: 6,893.00 – 6,909.00.
• Lower gate: 6,842.00 – 6,827.00.

Current structure (London Session)

As of this update, London session price is trading at 6,912, above the central pivot (6,866.50) and POC (6,905), while holding around/just above the upper gate and retaining yesterday’s gains.

• Current structure state: Recovery holding above value, testing continuation at the upper gate.

That keeps the recovery structure intact for now, but New York opening flows will still need to confirm acceptance.

• If price holds above the CP, POC, and the upper gate, recovery momentum can continue, with 6,923, 6,936, 6,952, and potentially the upper range (6,979.50) in focus.
• If price falls back below the upper gate, focus shifts back to internal reference levels:
• • 6,887.
  • 6,883.
  • 6,880.
  • 6,876.
  • 6,872.
    And then toward the central pivot at 6,866.50..
• If the CP fails, the lower gate (6,842 – 6,827) becomes the next key support zone and the recovery structure weakens.

With the intraday CP and daily CP aligned at 6,866.50, that level acts as the main session anchor. Holding above it supports the recovery structure; losing it shifts the session back into rotation/risk-off behaviour.

TPO/order-flow read

• Structure state: Recovery phase with price testing acceptance above the upper gate.
• Internal TPO structure: Firm.
• Delta: Positive.

The TPO read is constructive: price is trading above the CP, POC, and the upper-gate zone, which shows good progress from yesterday’s recovery.

The key now is not just the push higher, but acceptance above the upper gate (6,893–6,909). If ES can hold that area through the London-to-New York handoff, the recovery has a stronger base. If not, the market may rotate back into the upper gate/POC area before choosing a direction again.

London to New York session note

New York opening flows may briefly sweep above or below the upper gate before confirming direction, so acceptance matters more than the first move.

S&P 500 futures and Dow futures are in a similar position — both are trading in stronger territory near/within their upper-gate zones after yesterday’s recovery. That is constructive, but the real test is whether New York opening flows confirm the move.

If ES, Dow, and Nasdaq futures all hold above session value and gate support, continuation becomes more credible. If one or two fail to hold while the others remain firm, expect a more rotational and less efficient move.

Key level to watch now

6,909–6,893 (upper gate): Holding above this zone supports continuation of the recovery. A move back below it raises the chance of rotation toward the POC (6,905) and CP (6,866.50).

Nasdaq futures trading desk report

Nasdaq futures (NQ/MNQ) London mid-session: Price is holding above the CP and POC after yesterday’s recovery, but the upper gate (25,134–25,186) remains the key resistance zone that has capped upside rotation since Feb. 17.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ/MNQ) – London Mid-Session update

Nasdaq futures continue to build on yesterday’s recovery, with today’s map acting as a continuation of that move. Price is holding above the central pivot and POC during the London mid-session, keeping the focus on whether the market can finally rotate into the upper gate, which has capped upside progress since February 17.

Compared with Dow and S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq remains in the same broader recovery setup, but this contract still needs a clean acceptance through the upper-gate zone to confirm stronger continuation into New York.

Major intraday levels (Nasdaq Futures)

• Upper range: 25,405.
• Central pivot (CP): 25,051.
• Lower range: 24,744.
• POC: 25,040.
• Upper gate: 25,134 – 25,186.
• Lower gate: 24,978 – 24,934.

Current structure (London Mid-Session)

As of this update, London mid-session price is trading at 25,076, which places price above the CP (25,051) and above the POC (25,040), while still below the upper gate (25,134–25,186).

• Current structure state: Recovery holding above value, testing whether price can extend from CP/POC into the upper gate.

That is constructive progress from yesterday’s recovery, but the market is still below the main resistance band that has capped the rotation.

• If price holds above the central pivot (25,051) into the New York session, it has a stronger base to work toward the upper gate (25,134–25,186).
• A tag and hold above the upper gate would improve the structure and open the door to further upside references:
• • 25,228.
  • 25,269.
  • 25,321.
    and then the upper range (25,405).
• If price drops back below the CP, focus shifts back toward the lower gate (24,978–24,934), with the risk of a broader rotation through value.

With Nasdaq, the recovery structure stays constructive while price holds above the CP/POC zone. A loss of the CP (25,051), especially if followed by acceptance below the POC (25,040), would weaken the push and shift focus back toward the lower gate.

TPO/Order-Flow Read

• Structure state: Recovery phase, with price holding above CP/POC and pressing toward the upper gate.
• Internal TPO structure: Improving/balanced-to-firm.
• Delta: Positive.

The TPO read is constructive for now: delta is positive and price is holding above both the POC and CP, which keeps the upper gate in focus heading into New York.

The map is clear:

• Holding above CP 25,051 keeps the chance of rotating to the upper side of the two-way structure open.
• The main issue remains the same as in recent sessions: the upper gate has capped rotation since Feb. 17, so acceptance above that band matters more than a brief tag.

A first tag of the upper gate is not the signal on its own; the stronger signal is acceptance above the gate after the New York opening rotation.

London to New York session note

Nasdaq is moving in the same general direction as Dow and S&P 500 futures, but it remains the contract to watch for confirmation, as the upper-gate capped has been a repeated feature in recent sessions.

Nasdaq remains the key confirmation contract because repeated rejections at the upper gate since Feb. 17 have limited broader upside follow-through.

New York opening flows may sweep either side of the CP/POC before choosing direction, so the key is whether price can hold above the CP and then build acceptance into/above the upper gate rather than just touch it.

If NQ joins ES and Dow with acceptance above the session value and gate support, the broader index recovery case improves. If NQ stalls again at the upper gate while ES/Dow hold, expect more uneven and rotational index trade.

Key level to watch now

25,051 (CP): This remains the key session anchor. Holding above it keeps the path open toward the upper gate (25,134–25,186); losing it increases the risk of rotation back toward the lower gate (24,978–24,934).

Which index looks stronger heading into New York?

S&P 500 futures (ES) currently look the strongest heading into the New York session.

Why ES looks strongest (relative read)

• Price is holding above CP and POC.
• Price is already around/just above the upper gate.
• Delta is positive.
• The intraday CP and daily CP align at 6,866.50, giving ES a stronger structural anchor than usual.

Relative ranking (current setup)

1. S&P 500 (ES) – strongest / cleanest recovery structure.
2. Dow (YM) – constructive, but still in a prove-it upper-gate decision zone.
3. Nasdaq (NQ/MNQ) – improving, but still the key confirmation contract while below the upper gate.

This can change quickly at the New York open, especially if Nasdaq gains acceptance above its upper gate and joins ES/Dow in cleaner continuation.

Summary

The London session is holding the recovery structure across all three major US index futures, but the quality of that recovery remains mixed. ES is showing the cleanest structure, Dow is constructive, and Nasdaq is improving but still capped below a repeated resistance gate. New York opening flows should decide whether this turns into a broader continuation or another rotational session around value and gate levels.