Nearly 50% of Bitcoin Supply Now in Loss, Echoing Past Bottoms

TLDR

• Nearly 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply now trades below its cost basis at around $66,500.
• Bitcoin has declined 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
• Similar levels of supply in loss appeared at previous cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
• The Fear and Greed Index currently reads 11, reflecting extreme fear in the market.
• The share of UTXOs in profit has dropped sharply from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% today.

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its decline as nearly half of its circulating coins now trade below cost basis. On-chain data shows 48.7% of supply sits in loss at a price near $66,500. Previous cycles reached similar levels before Bitcoin price formed its bear market bottom.

Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its $126,000 peak recorded in October 2025. The broader crypto market has erased over $1.2 trillion in value since that peak.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss Reaches Historic 50% Baseline

CryptoQuant data shows 48.7% of Bitcoin supply, about 9.7 million BTC, remains below acquisition price. Analyst Crypto Rand stated that “the last three times this happened, it marked the exact bottom.” He shared the data as Bitcoin traded near $66,500.

Historical records show similar readings during prior bear markets. Bitcoin traded at $15,479 in November 2022 when half the supply was underwater. It also traded at $3,122 in December 2018 and $152 in January 2015 under similar conditions.

Each of those levels later became the cycle low. Prices rebounded strongly after selling pressure eased.

Data indicates heavy losses often follow rapid declines. Forced selling tends to slow once weaker holders exit the market.

Market Indicators Mirror Past Bitcoin Cycle Lows

The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 11, which signals Extreme Fear. The index showed 20 during the November 2022 bottom and 11 in December 2018.

On-chain metrics also reflect declining profitability. UTXOs in profit have dropped from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% today.

The same metric stood above 99% in November 2024. It measured 84.6% as recently as January 2026.

UTXOs in profit track whether coins trade above their last moved price. The sharp fall shows that many holders now hold unrealized losses.

Analyst Moustache said Bitcoin recorded its second-lowest weekly RSI in history. He stated that this reading suggests the bottom may already be in place.

Trader HK identified a price range between $60,000 and $42,000 as a potential bottom zone. He said historical data shows experienced investors often accumulate in this area.

Bitcoin continues to trade near $66,000 at the time of reporting. Market data confirms that nearly half of the circulating supply remains below cost basis.

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