Novavax (NVAX) Stock Beats Q4 Estimates, Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook

TLDR

• Novavax Q4 EPS came in at $0.11, beating estimates by $0.60
• Q4 revenue hit $147M, well above the $90.25M consensus estimate
• The company swung to a $18M net profit from an $81M loss a year earlier
• Novavax raised its 2026 adjusted revenue outlook to $230M–$270M, up from $185M–$205M
• Licensing deals, including a $530M agreement with Pfizer for its Matrix-M adjuvant, are driving optimism

Novavax (NVAX) posted a strong fourth quarter, beating Wall Street on both earnings and revenue, and followed it up with a raised outlook for 2026.

The company reported Q4 EPS of $0.11, crushing the analyst estimate of -$0.49 by $0.60. Revenue came in at $147 million, up 67% year-over-year, and well ahead of the consensus estimate of around $90 million.

Net income for the quarter was $18 million. That compares to a net loss of $81 million in the same period a year earlier — a notable turnaround driven by cost cuts and licensing revenue.

Novavax, Inc., NVAX

NVAX closed at $9.53 on the day. The stock is up 35.18% over the last three months and up 34.99% over the past 12 months.

InvestingPro rates Novavax’s Financial Health score as “great performance.”

The quarter wasn’t built on vaccine sales alone. Licensing deals have become a key part of Novavax’s story, and they showed up clearly in the numbers.

Last month, Novavax licensed its Matrix-M adjuvant to Pfizer for up to $530 million. Matrix-M is the component in its Nuvaxovid shot that helps boost the body’s immune response to vaccines.

2026 Outlook Raised

Novavax now expects 2026 adjusted revenue of $230 million to $270 million. That’s up from its prior forecast of $185 million to $205 million.

Those figures exclude sales and royalties from its Sanofi partnership, which adds further upside not reflected in the revised guidance.

The company expects milestone payments from vaccine supply and licensing agreements to help offset weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines.

Regulatory and Policy Backdrop

U.S. COVID-19 vaccination rates have fallen under the current administration, which has shifted vaccine policy in ways that have pressured the broader industry.

Earlier this month, the FDA initially declined to review Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine application before reversing that decision after Moderna amended its filing. Jacobs said it was “good to see them have a regulatory path forward.”

Novavax is targeting full profitability by 2028, supported by key product launches from its Sanofi deal. One of those is a COVID-flu combination vaccine built around the Nuvaxovid shot.

The company saw 0 positive EPS revisions and 2 negative EPS revisions in the last 90 days prior to the earnings release.

Q4 revenue of $147 million topped analysts’ average estimate of $78.84 million, according to LSEG data.

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