Oil traders believe OPEC+ will hold production levels unchanged at this weekend’s meeting

Oil traders expect OPEC+ to leave crude output unchanged at a meeting this weekend, pausing after months of faster supply additions.

Delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have sent mixed signals. The group has already restored 2.2 million barrels daily, a year earlier than planned. Demand is steady, but the International Energy Agency still sees a sizable surplus by year-end.

Prices are down about 9% this year as the OPEC+ ramp-up collides with slower Chinese fuel use and rising flows from the United States, Brazil and Canada. Brent traded near $68 a barrel on Monday, pressuring producers globally. It is a win for President Donald Trump, who pushes for cheaper fuel, but threatens producers’ revenue.

“I expect OPEC+ to hold fire through the current refinery maintenance season to assess if the widely expected downside to crude prices will materialize,” said Aldo Spanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP Paribas.

Officials say the recent surge aimed to reclaim market share lost during years of cuts. Another 1.66 million barrels a day of capacity is due to stay offline until the end of next year.

Even so, most traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg do not expect an immediate restart. Seventeen respondents predicted OPEC+ will keep output flat in October when ministers meet by video on Sunday (Sept. 7), while six expected a modest increase.

Next OPEC+ move could be a cut or further hike

At last month’s meeting, eight key members approved a September rise of 547,000 barrels a day, completing the return of 2.2 million barrels a day shut in during 2023. Officials also signaled the next move could be a cut or another increase.

“The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” the producers said on OPEC’s website.

Some analysts, including Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley, say OPEC+ may need to cut output next year to avoid a glut.

Prices rose more than 1% on Monday on worries over Russia-Ukraine airstrikes and a weaker dollar. At 1335 GMT, Brent traded at $68.28 per barrel, up $0.80 (1.2%). In the U.S., West Texas Intermediate rose by $0.80 (1.3%) to $64.81. Trading was muted by a U.S. public holiday.

Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in four months in August, losing 6% or more on extra OPEC+ supply.

“Crude fell in August and has started September with no clear direction within established ranges as fears of a fourth-quarter supply glut are offset by geopolitical tensions,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

He said attention had shifted to Beijing, where China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and India’s Narendra Modi are attending a regional summit. He added that the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 was also in focus.

Markets remain wary of Russian flows

Weekly shipments from its ports fell to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day, ANZ said, citing tanker-tracker data.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to answer with more strikes deep inside Russia after Russian drones hit power facilities in northern and southern Ukraine. Both sides have intensified airstrikes, hitting energy sites and disrupting Russian exports.

HSBC analysts said oil inventories should rise in the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. labor-market report this week will show the economy’s health and test investor confidence that interest-rate cuts are coming soon. Before the data, the dollar was near a five-week low on Monday, making oil cheaper for other buyers.

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