Bitcoin 2025: probable minimum at 93–95k, on-chain pivot at 108.9k and the decisive role of ETFs

Bitcoin enters a particularly delicate phase of the cycle: after reaching all-time highs in the summer of 2025, with values exceeding 120,000 USD Reuters, July 14, 2025, on-chain models indicate a pivot around 108,900 dollars (data Glassnode, updated as of August 31, 2025) and a crucial support area between 93,000 and 95,000 USD.

This level could serve as a “defense zone” in case of a further pullback. It should be noted that the market structure, at this juncture, is also affected by seasonality and regulated flows.

According to data collected by our research team, which cross-references ETF trackers and on-chain metrics, net inflows of spot ETFs in the summer quarter decreased by about 18% compared to Q2 2025 (data updated as of 08/31/2025).

Industry analysts observe persistent bid clusters around the 93–95k range: in our monitors, these limit orders represent an estimate between 0.5% and 0.8% of the circulating supply, providing a potential basis for technical rebounds.

These operational findings are consistent with on-chain patterns reported by specialized providers such as Glassnode and Coin Metrics.

In Brief

• On-chain Pivot (Short-Term Holder Realised Price) around ~108,900 USD: below this level, selling pressure tends to increase, as evidenced by data from Glassnode Academy.
• Area 93–95k observed as a possible “defense zone” if the correction deepens.
• Spot ETF with seasonally weak inflows – a recovery in flows is expected in Q4, a factor that could catalyze a momentum reversal. Learn more in our Bitcoin ETF Q4 2025 monitoring.
• Stagnant Altcoins: There is an internal rotation of capital rather than new net inflows, benefiting Bitcoin, while mid-cap token holders experience dispersion. Further details on altcoins and capital rotation.
• Uncertain macro: rates in the adjustment phase and inflation remaining above the target keep the volatility of risky assets high, as highlighted in macroeconomic analysis 2025.

On-chain Pivots: Short-Term Holder Realized Price at ~108,900 USD

The Short‑Term Holder (STH) Realised Price represents the average cost basis of coins held by short-term investors.

According to the methodology of Glassnode Academy, when the spot price falls below this pivot, STHs tend to become net sellers, increasing supply pressure.

Recent values highlight a sensitive threshold around 108,900 USD, and a prolonged presence below this level could exacerbate the drawdown extension.

An interesting aspect is the consistency of definitions with broader ecosystem metrics, such as those summarized by Coin Metrics, which confirm the use of the realized price as a short-term risk barometer.

• STH Realized Price: ~108,900 USD (source: Glassnode Academy)
• ATH summer 2025: over 120,000 USD (source: Reuters, July 14, 2025)
• Sentiment spot: signs of neutralization in the Cumulative Volume Delta, as indicated by various market sources.

Why the market looks at 93–95k as a “defense zone”

In previous cycles, prolonged drawdown phases have shown a seasonal component and a convergence between “real-world” sales and a cooling of sentiment.

In a context where liquidity becomes thinner, the market tends to seek levels where passive demand can absorb the supply. In this cycle, the 93–95k range emerges as consistent with the volume profile and with psychological levels often tested during the spring-summer expansion.

In this context, the depth of order books and the presence of persistent bids around round thresholds also contribute to stabilizing technical rebounds, albeit intermittently.

Altcoin: capital rotation, not new entries

Many movements in secondary tokens reflect a redistribution of risk rather than net inflows.

The capitalization of alts appears flattened compared to Bitcoin, and local increases have been driven by market narratives rather than actual new capital, confirming an environment where Bitcoin continues to dominate, while mid-caps show signs of dispersion.

It should be noted that this scenario tends to favor more liquid structures, while the long tail of tokens suffers more from the absence of fresh flows.

Stagnation Signal: Volumes and Internal Rotation

When volumes remain stable and performance is based on internal portfolio rotation, the market structure appears fragile.

In previous cycles, this phase has preceded quieter accumulation periods, often by institutional investors, although further signals related to flows and liquidity are needed to confirm the dynamic.

An interesting aspect is the divergence between price performance and market breadth: if the breadth does not improve, the sustainability of the rebounds remains limited.

Spot ETF and Institutional Demand: The Driver of the Coming Months

In the short term, the flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs show some weakness, in line with summer seasonality. A recovery in inflows in Q4 – as suggested by the daily data from Farside Investors trackers and the weekly reports from CoinShares – could act as a catalyst for a momentum reversal.

Meanwhile, demand from corporate and fund managers remains a key element for the depth of the book, helping to compress spreads and improve execution liquidity, with repercussions on volatility measures and market curvature.

In this context, periodic analyses like those from CCData Research help to qualify the impact of regulated flows on the micro-structure.

ETH and major alts: widespread underperformance

Ethereum has experienced a more pronounced correction compared to Bitcoin in the recent phase, while tokens like XRP, ADA, and DOGE have seen double-digit declines from their highs.

The dispersion of performance among the alts suggests a prudent risk-management perspective, where higher risk premiums penalize the alts in the presence of compressed volumes.

The rotation towards higher capitalization assets is consistent with macro uncertainty scenarios and a preference for immediate liquidity.

• ETH: the decline in the recent corrective run was more pronounced compared to that of Bitcoin, with a relative loss of market share during risk-off phases
• Large cap and mid-cap: rallies have often been fueled more by market narratives than by genuine inflows of new capital

Macro: rates, inflation, and liquidity

The macro picture remains uncertain: signals of a possible easing of rates in the medium term clash with inflation that continues to exceed official targets.

A monetary policy potentially under revision, with more accommodative tones, could favor risky assets; however, the prevailing uncertainty contributes to keeping both implied and realized volatility on Bitcoin high.

In this context, the trajectory of inflation expectations and the resilience of the labor market remain crucial, factors that can reshape risk appetite in relatively short times.

For further reading: macroeconomic analysis 2025.

Regulation: More Clarity, Less Fragmentation

Recent regulatory interventions aim to reduce market fragmentation and clarify the requirements for listing and custody, with potentially positive effects on liquidity and institutional participation.

The harmonization of frameworks for foreign venues and stablecoins could help stabilize cross-exchange flows. It must be said that implementation and timing remain variable, but the direction appears more defined compared to previous cycles.

Technical Indicators: Scenarios and Conditions

• Scenario base: consolidation above 95k, absorption of volatility and gradual return towards the on‑chain pivot. Key conditions: a stable recovery around ~108.9k and an improvement in spot volumes, with breadth progressively expanding.
• Bear scenario: remaining below the STH Realised Price value with a breakdown of the 93–95k area. In this context, weak ETF flows and a deterioration of sentiment on exchanges could act as aggravating factors, especially in the presence of thin order books.
• Bull scenario: a resurgence of inflows into spot ETFs and a decisive surpassing of the pivot, supported by greater market breadth and an increase in liquidity in the order books, with compression of implied volatility supporting the trends.

What to Monitor in the Coming Weeks

• Net inflows into spot BTC ETFs (monitored by Farside Investors and CoinShares), with attention to daily trend reversals
• The behavior of Short-Term Holders in relation to the Realised Price, especially in the case of prolonged pivot tests
• The volumes and directionality on exchanges, analyzed through indicators such as the Cumulative Volume Delta and the depth of order books, to detect any imbalances
• Updates on the regulatory front and signals related to rates and inflation, in light of possible data-driven revisions

Conclusions

The forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025 remain influenced by three fundamental factors: the on-chain pivot (around 108.9k), the holding of the support area at 93–95k, and the return of inflows to spot ETFs.

The combination of compressed liquidity, internal capital rotation, and macro uncertainty suggests a cautious approach in the short term, with potential positive developments if regulated flows recover.

In this context, resilience above 95k and the reclaiming of the pivot will be the most watched steps by operators.