Houston Rockets Must Tread Cautiously With A Kevin Durant Extension

When the Houston Rockets acquired Kevin Durant via trade in early July, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that they’d sign him to a two-year extension shortly thereafter. However, Durant remains on an expiring contract nearly two months later.

The Rockets don’t appear to be in any rush to hand him a blank check, either.

“By all appearances and by what I’ve heard, they’re not going all-in on an extension for Kevin Durant,” ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said on the Hoop Collective podcast in August. “Now, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but there’ve been rumblings of, ‘Hey, KD’s not gonna push for the full max.’ I don’t know that the Rockets are going to put anything on the table that’s close to the max.”

If the Rockets don’t come to terms with Durant on a new deal between now and June 30, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Unlike this summer, when only the Brooklyn Nets had enough spending power to offer a max contract to a free agent, more than a half-dozen teams are currently projected to have salary-cap space next year.

So, what’s the Rockets’ holdup? With the threat of the second apron looming over teams more than ever before, they have to be mindful of their long-term salary commitments.

Young Rockets Headed For Big Paydays Soon

There’s only one real downside to routinely drafting as high in the lottery as the Rockets have in recent years: The bill eventually becomes due. Once those players’ rookie-scale contracts expire, it’s difficult if not impossible to afford everyone.

Jalen Green, whom the Rockets sent to Phoenix as part of the package for Durant, was the first casualty in that regard. He likely won’t be the last.

The Rockets already signed All-Star center Alperen Şengün to a five-year, $185 million extension last offseason, and they inked 2022 No. 3 overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. to a five-year, $122 million extension this summer. However, Smith’s draft classmate, No. 17 overall pick Tari Eason, remains without a new deal. If he and the Rockets don’t agree to one by Oct. 20, he’ll become a restricted free agent next offseason.

Eason isn’t the only young player whom the Rockets have left to sign, though. Amen Thompson (No. 4 overall pick in 2023) will become extension-eligible next offseason, while Reed Sheppard (No. 3 overall pick in 2024) will join him in 2027-28.

Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder did with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Rockets have already begun to plan ahead. The four-year, $52.7 million contract that they signed veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith to this offseason is fully non-guaranteed in 2027-28, which is right when Thompson’s extension will be kicking in. They re-signed veteran center Steven Adams to a three-year, $39 million contract this offseason, but they structured it to descend in value each year.

Aside from Durant and their young players, Fred VanVleet will be the Rockets’ other big wild card. They declined their $44.9 million team option on VanVleet this offseason only to re-sign him to a two-year, $50 million deal, but his new contract contains a $25.0 million player option in 2026-27. In the worst-case scenario, the Rockets could be juggling Durant, VanVleet and Eason in free agency next offseason.

Can The Rockets Avoid The Second Apron?

Even if VanVleet declines his player option, the Rockets already have more than $116.9 million in salary on their books for the 2026-27 campaign. If they re-sign all three of VanVleet, Durant and Eason, they could be in grave danger of vaulting over the dreaded second apron.

At the beginning of the new league year, the NBA issued an updated projection that the salary cap is only expected to rise 7% in 2026-27. If it increases by exactly 7%, the cap would land at roughly $165.5 million, which would put the luxury-tax line at $201.0 million, the first apron at $209.7 million and the second apron at $222.4 million.

If VanVleet opts out, the Rockets will have only seven players under contract for next season (Şengün, Smith, Finney-Smith, Adams, Thompson, Sheppard and Clint Capela). They’d have roughly $106.4 million to re-sign all three of Durant, VanVleet and Eason and then fill out the rest of their roster before they crossed the second apron.

Based on the 7% cap increase, each veteran-minimum salary would cost around $2.45 million. So, in the best-case scenario—where the Rockets leave one roster spot open and punt on using their mid-level exception—four minimum signings will wipe out nearly $10 million alone. The Rockets would then have roughly $96.5 million to spend on Eason, VanVleet and Durant before they crossed the second apron.

Eason may be the main reason why the Rockets aren’t rushing into extension talks with Durant. If they gave Durant a max extension, it would begin at roughly $54.7 million. That would leave them around $39.1 million to re-sign both Eason and VanVleet without crossing the second apron, and that’s assuming they only hand out four minimum contracts to round out their roster. If they wanted to use their taxpayer mid-level exception—which would hard-cap them at the second apron—they’d have even less flexibility to retain Eason and VanVleet.

The Rockets are thus in a similar boat as the Atlanta Hawks, who’ve also been slow-rolling extension talks with star point guard Trae Young. The Hawks have until late October to sign Dyson Daniels, the NBA’s reigning Most Improved Player, to a contract extension or else he’ll also become a restricted free agent next summer. Offseason trade acquisition Kristaps Porziņģis is also eligible for an extension as well.

The Hawks might not decide whether to extend Porziņģis and/or Young—and how much they’re willing to spend on each—until they see whether they can come to terms with Daniels. Once they have his price point locked in, they’ll have more clarity about how much financial flexibility they have to extend Porziņģis and/or Young as well.

VanVleet is not extension-eligible since he became a free agent this offseason, but Durant can sign an extension any time between now and June 30. If he waits to sign until six months from the date of the trade, he’ll also become eligible for 8% annual raises rather than 5%.

Before buckling down with Durant in extension negotiations, Rockets’ first order of business may be to see whether they can come to terms with Eason. Once they know his long-term cost, they’ll have a better sense of how much they could spend on Durant and/or VanVleet without crossing into second-apron territory.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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