Topline
Prices at the pump could exceed a national average of $3 following the United States-led airstrikes against Iran and Americans could see effects as early as next week, according to an oil analyst.
Analysts say the price of oil and gas could increase amid attacks involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
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Key Facts
Patrick de Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, said in a Substack on Saturday oil prices could rise 5 to 10%, pushing the price above $70 per barrel after closing Friday at around $65.
It could accelerate a seasonal climb in gas prices in the United States, according to DeHaan, who said the national average of gas could hit $3 per gallon on Monday for the first time this year.
But De Haan said prices will still likely pale in comparison to major increases seen in 2022 when demand surged following the COVID-19 pandemic and concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Dozens of oil tankers reportedly diverted from the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday amid unverified reports the strait was closed, and continued disruptions could play a role in oil prices rising even more.
Damages to Iranian oil export infrastructure and the possible widespread reach of the conflict could also play roles in rising costs, De Haan said.
Unlike the United States’s military action against Venezuela earlier this year, which had only a small effect on energy costs, the Iran conflict has potential to play a larger and longer role according to Politico.
About 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, according to Politico, but experts say escalation across the Middle East could ripple through global markets and raise fuel and energy costs for Americans.
Crucial Quote
“Iran is a larger oil producer than Venezuela and thus the consequences of a disruption could be larger,” Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institute, told Politico. “Add in their strategic location on the world’s most important oil chokepoint and you have a situation that could have significant market impacts, not just in the U.S.”
Why The Strait Of Hormuz Matters
About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to other shipping lanes through the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The uncertainty surrounding the strait is “the biggest concern” about oil prices, according to De Haan, who said traders will avoid oil if disruptions at the strategic waterway continue. Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy, guaranteed a “global recession” should the strait be closed for a long duration, CNBC reported.
Key Background
Gas Prices have been increasing in the U.S. since January due to a seasonal shift and hit a national average of $2.98 on Thursday. Despite President Donald Trump saying in his State of the Union speech Tuesday that gas prices were below $2.30 in the majority of states, there were no states with gas below that mark on Saturday, according to AAA data. Prices often increase during warmer months due to a transition to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive but required by the EPA to reduce harmful emissions.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikestunson/2026/02/28/gas-prices-could-go-above-3-per-gallon-next-week-after-iran-strikes-analyst-warns/
