Tiger Lefty Tarik Skubal Remains In Firm Control Of AL Cy Young Race

We’re into the last month of the regular season, so it’s time to take another look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The current AL leader is last year’s winner, and he has built a significant if not quite insurmountable lead.

If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they “should have” allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..

There are no real sleepers outside the Top Ten at this point – even the contenders for down-ballot positions have fairly entrenched themselves. FYI, I am not including players who are not ERA qualifiers presently, eliminating the likes of the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi. Let’s get right to it.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Astro lefty Framber Valdez (8.1 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average) holds the same position he did a month ago. As usual, his success stems from generating grounders – his 1.9 degree average launch angle allowed is by far the lowest of any player we’ll discuss today. It should be noted that Valdez has been fortunate across all batted ball types, and his 89 “Tru”- is higher than both his 78 ERA- and 73 FIP-. Blue Jay righty Kevin Gausman (9.4 TPRAA) enters the Top 10 this month. As usual, he derives most of his success from a strong K/BB profile, though his contact management performance (101 Adjusted Contact Score) has been better than usual this season. Like Valdez, he’s been fortunate on ball batted ball types (84 Unadjusted Contact Score).

Yankee lefty Max Fried (14.6 TPRAA) falls from #5 last month. His 7.6 degree average launch angle allowed is the sccond lowest among pitchers discussed today. He’s one of only three pitchers in this group who has yielded lower than average contact authority across all batted ball types. With an 89 Adjusted Contact Score, he’s in the thick of the AL Contact Manager of the Year race. Another player in that mix is his teammate, lefty Carlos Rodon, who presently has an 88 Adjusted Contact Score. That’s a huge development for him, who hasn’t been a particularly good contact manager in the past. His 81 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is the best among this group. He moves up a couple spots from 9th in the Cy race a month ago.

THE TOP FIVE STARTERS

#5T- RHP Jacob deGrom (Rangers) – 18.9 TPRAA, 72 “Tru”-, 67 ERA-, 81 FIP-

It looks like deGrom is going to make it to the 162 inning ERA qualification threshold, a major accomplishment in itself at this stage of his career. And the quality has been pretty good as well. He’s been extremely lucky on grounders (43 Unadjusted vs. 95 Adjusted Ground Ball Contact Score), accounting for the difference between his ERA- and the other metrics. He was 6th in last month’s rankings.

#5T- RHP Hunter Brown (Astros) – 18.9 TPRAA, 74 “Tru”-, 58 ERA-, 72 FIP-

Brown and deGrom are currently in a dead heat, with Brown possessing the edge in quantity and deGrom the edge in quality. Brown is one of three of these 10 hurlers to hold hitters to below average contact authority across all batted ball types. His 85.9 mph average exit speed allowed is the lowest among this group. His batted ball mix isn’t as optimal as some of the other top contenders. Brown ranked 5th on this list last month.

#4- RHP Bryan Woo (Mariners) – 20.7 TPRAA, 72 “Tru”-, 77 ERA-, 88 FIP-

Woo makes a nice jump upward from #7 on this list a month ago, Next to #1 below, Woo has had the best control among this exclusive group of hurlers. Only two hurlers in this group has allowed a lower average line drive exit speed than Woo’s 92.0 mph. That’s part of the reason his “Tru”- is lower than his more traditional metrics. In a season marked by injuries to his club’s vaunted rotation, Woo has come up big.

#3- RHP Joe Ryan (Twins) – 20.9 TPRAA, 70 “Tru”-, 75 ERA-, 78 FIP-

The Twins busted up their club at the trading deadline, but Ryan has just kept rolling along. The antithesis of Framber Valdez, Ryan is a pop up machine whose 17.9 degree average launch angle is the highest of any pitcher we’ll discuss today. His control is right up there in Woo’s league. While Ryan allows harder than average liner and grounder contact, he doesn’t allow many liners and grounders. He retains his 3rd place ranking this month as he bears down on the ERA qualification threshold for the the first time in his career.

#2- LHP Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) – 24.8 TPRAA, 68 “Tru”-, 56 ERA-, 61 FIP-

Crochet has been the centerpiece of a rejuvenated Bosox rotation in his first season with the club. He’s in a tight battle with #1 below in multiple key pitching categories, including innings pitched and strikeouts. He has also taken a step forward command-wise. Only Brown has allowed a lower average fly ball exit speed than Crochet’s 88.8 mph, and his 90.0 mph average liner exit speed is best among this group. Crochet holds his #2 ranking from last month.

#1- LHP Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – 32.7 TPRAA, 58 “Tru”-, 53 ERA-, 53 FIP-

Having already passed the 162-inning ERA qualification threshold, Skubal is basically a sure bet to hold the top spot at the end of the season and repeat as the Cy winner according to this method. He’s got the most Ks, the fewest BBs, the most innings, and is in the mix for Contact Manager of the Year honors, something that would have been unthinkable in the early stages of his career, when he was just trying to blow the ball past people. His 80.6 mph average grounder exit speed allowed is easily the best among this group, and he ranks highly in most other categories as well. He holds on to the top spot he held a month ago.

Fangraphs WAR has Skubal (6.2), Crochet (5.4) and Brown (4.2) in the top three spots.