Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Earnings Preview: Critical Metrics to Monitor This Week

Quick Summary

• Rigetti Computing unveils Q4 FY2025 financial results following market hours on March 4, 2026.
• Wall Street forecasts an EPS loss of $0.03 with anticipated revenue reaching $2.33 million.
• RGTI shares have declined over 21% in 2026, though they climbed 9.4% in the previous week.
• IonQ’s impressive Q4 performance boosted optimism throughout the quantum computing industry, benefiting RGTI.
• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) represent the most critical indicator for gauging future growth prospects.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 financial performance following Wednesday’s closing bell on March 4. The timing presents unique challenges — shares have tumbled more than 21% since January, though recent trading sessions brought modest relief.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

Shares advanced 9.4% during the week concluding March 1, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 0.4% decline and the Nasdaq’s 1% drop. This reversal caught attention, particularly since Rigetti itself hadn’t announced any company-specific catalysts.

IonQ unveiled its Q4 performance on February 25, delivering a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 per share alongside revenue totaling $61.89 million. Wall Street had anticipated a $0.23 per share loss with revenue of only $40.38 million. The substantial beat created ripples throughout the quantum computing space.

IonQ subsequently projected full-year 2026 revenue between $225 million and $245 million, significantly surpassing the Street’s $192.6 million estimate. Such robust forward guidance typically elevates sentiment across the entire sector, with Rigetti benefiting from the positive momentum.

Attention now shifts to Rigetti’s performance.

Analysts project a $0.03 per share loss for Q4, representing improvement from the $0.08 per share loss recorded in the year-ago period. Revenue expectations stand at $2.33 million, marking approximately 2.6% year-over-year growth. While these figures appear modest, the trajectory holds significance.

Why RPOs Deserve Your Attention

For pre-profitability ventures like Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) provide more meaningful insight than quarterly revenue alone. RPOs quantify the value of secured contracts awaiting fulfillment — functioning as a forward indicator of locked-in business commitments.

Rigetti’s RPOs experienced a decline in early 2025 before rebounding. Market participants will scrutinize whether this recovery maintains momentum or loses steam.

RPOs encompass agreements for quantum processing units, cloud platform access, and associated services. For an organization investing heavily in research and development, this metric reveals whether customers are committing to substantial, extended partnerships.

Hardware Timeline Under Scrutiny

Hardware development timelines have occupied investor attention recently. Rigetti postponed its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system launch until Q1 FY2026’s conclusion.

The organization also pledged to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end 2025. Whether this milestone was achieved — or its current status — will likely surface during the earnings discussion.

Analyst perspectives entering the report lean cautiously optimistic. According to TipRanks, RGTI maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating, supported by five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $38.75, suggesting potential upside exceeding 120% from current trading levels near $17.52.

The stock’s 52-week trading range spans $6.86 to $58.15, positioning today’s price approximately midway through that spectrum. Significant gains from peak levels have evaporated.

Rigetti’s Q4 earnings discussion is slated for after market close on March 4, 2026.

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