Analyst warns Trump faces 'very hard' hurdle in Iran as 'more extreme' leader lies waiting

An analyst revealed the difficult challenge ahead for President Donald Trump as the war in Iran now enters its fourth day.

In an interview on MS NOW's Morning Joe with David Ignatius, columnist and associate editor of The Washington Post, and Shashank Joshi, defense editor at The Economist, Joshi discussed the Trump administration's mixed messaging about objectives for the military strikes in Iran, including regime change, then "imminent threats" from Iran against Israel and the push to stop Iran from developing ballistic missiles.

"What we heard yesterday from Dan Caine, from Secretary Rubio, from Secretary Hegseth, others, was a very, very different set of aims narrowly focused around Iran's missile program," Joshi said.

The war aims, such as regime change, could take weeks, Joshi explained.

"Now that, I think, can be done in a short period of time, they can degrade missile stockpiles, and we've already heard the Iranians the Israelis say they have destroyed about half of the Iranian missile launches did Iran's able to bring to bear and I think you could have really long lasting and severe damage done to Iran's missile program by the end of this week," Joshi said. "There's no doubt about it. But the problem is, you would still have an Iran led by individuals who are more hardline in some respects than the leaders who have been killed by the strike so far. You have, you know, a new leader of these Islamic Revolutionary Guard, called Vahidi, who is this man? Well, you know, David is, you know, he is a former head of the expeditionary, IRGC. He was associated with the bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Argentina in the 1990s. This is not a regime that will be more moderate, more pragmatic, more deterred than that, of Ayatollah Khamenei."

Despite the killing of Khamenei and the dismantling of Iran's weapons, the problem over Iran's leadership will still remain.

"And so, I still think at the end of this week, even though enormous damage may have been done to Iran's missile program, including the supply chain the explosives, the guidance systems, you will still have the political problem sitting in Iran over regime, that cast this incredible U.S. missile shadow over the Persian Gulf, and I think the Trump administration will find it very hard to articulate that and frame that as some kind of decisive win," Joshi added.

The strikes have wiped out the regime, but it could take time for Iranians to reform their government.

"But I think the focus of these first three days of operations have been on Iran's missile forces, Iran's navy and nuclear and missile sites as well as political leadership," Joshi said. "I think if you are going to give the Iranian people the confidence to say, 'if we go back onto the streets in a week's time and we want confidence, we are not going to be gunned down in the same way.' I think what you need to see is an Israeli and American set of strikes over the next four or five days that systematically break down Iran's domestic security apparatus."

But history could repeat.

"I think that is a very hard thing to do, and I think that President Trump will face the dilemma between doing that and upholding his commitment to the Iranian people that he has made and sucking himself into a longer campaign, but it'll, he should remember the case of George H.W. Bush in 1991, who, as you will recall at David and others, called upon the Iraqi people to rise up in 1991 after the first Gulf War and the Shias in the south and the Kurds in the north did so, and they were massacred by Saddam Hussein," Joshi said. "That should be, I think a very, very caution retail for American strategy today."