U.S. yields steady as Goldman maps Fed cuts amid oil risk

Goldman Sachs: Fed could still cut twice if risks worsen

Goldman Sachs says the federal reserve could still execute two rate cuts this year if the Middle East situation deteriorates rapidly, contingent on the inflation and growth backdrop, as reported by Bloomberg (video). The bank’s view implies easing remains possible under stress if inflation progress persists and growth risks mount, rather than a blanket freeze in policy.

For investors parsing the conditional setup, the signal is that geopolitically driven supply risks do not automatically preclude Federal Reserve rate cuts. The path depends on whether an energy shock lifts inflation expectations or, alternatively, tightens financial conditions enough to challenge activity and employment.

Why Middle East shocks matter for inflation and policy

Energy disruptions typically raise headline inflation quickly via fuel and transport costs, while core inflation effects depend on duration and second-round pressures. Central banks balance that against growth: a persistent oil spike can simultaneously slow demand and lift prices, complicating reaction functions.

Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius has flagged that an “oil shock” tied to Iran tensions could threaten the recent Goldilocks mix of resilient growth and moderating inflation, as reported by The Australian. That framework suggests policy flexibility narrows if price pressures broaden and expectations drift.

Against this backdrop, officials have emphasized optionality. “One or two interest rate cuts could still be appropriate over the course of the year,” said Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, while cautioning that the war could also argue for holding steady, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Rate-sensitive instruments offer the cleanest read on evolving odds. Swap rates used by lenders to price mortgages have risen sharply, Moneyfacts noted, as per Yahoo Finance; that move points to tighter financial conditions even before any policy action.

Traders also monitor TIPS breakevens and front-end treasury yields for the growth–inflation mix, and USD/EUR for global risk and policy differentials. A durable rise in breakevens with firm oil would argue for caution, while softer growth proxies alongside anchored expectations could reopen the door to cuts.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $71,037 with a 14-day RSI around 46 and medium realized volatility near 4.5%. These cross-asset readings are contextual and do not signal policy direction by themselves.

What to watch next for policy and markets

Escalation scenarios and policy responses: baseline to severe oil shock

A quick de-escalation would likely keep inflation on a cooling path and preserve room for gradual easing later in the year. A moderate disruption that lifts oil for weeks could slow growth and complicate cuts until expectations stay anchored.

A severe, persistent oil supply shock would raise headline inflation and risk pass-through, increasing the bar for near-term easing. market risk appetite has been relatively steady so far, said David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, as reported by Business Insider, but he noted impacts can surface with lags.

Watch Brent and WTI spot prices and term structures for persistence of any supply shock. Track OIS and mortgage-related swaps for real-time policy repricing and funding conditions.

Follow 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates alongside front-end yields for the policy trade-off. Monitor USD/EUR and official Federal Reserve remarks for shifts in reaction function and tolerance for inflation versus growth risks.

FAQ about Federal Reserve rate cuts

How would an oil price spike from the Middle East affect U.S. inflation and the Fed’s rate decisions?

It would likely lift headline inflation and tighten financial conditions. Persistent, broad pressures could delay cuts; growth weakness with anchored expectations could still allow conditional easing.

What is Goldman Sachs forecasting for rate cuts and under which scenarios?

Goldman Sachs indicates two cuts remain possible this year if Middle East risks worsen and macro conditions permit, as reported by Bloomberg (video). The outlook is conditional, not guaranteed.