BTC On-Chain Data Signals Bear Market Conditions Despite $70K Push
James Ding Mar 04, 2026 16:02
Glassnode analysis shows Bitcoin's supply in profit at 57%, matching early 2022 and 2018 bear market levels. Options flow rotating toward $75K calls.
Bitcoin briefly pushed above $71,000 on March 4, gaining 6.22% in 24 hours, yet fresh on-chain data from Glassnode paints a sobering picture beneath the surface rally. The percent of supply in profit has dropped to approximately 57%—breaking below its -1 standard deviation threshold and matching readings last seen during the early stages of the 2022 and 2018 bear markets.
That's not a comparison anyone wants to hear.
Buy-Side Demand Has Evaporated
The 30-day moving average of realized profit has contracted roughly 63% since early February, falling from over $1 billion per day to approximately $370 million. This metric tracks actual USD profit locked in when coins move on-chain, and its collapse indicates the pool of buyers willing to pay premium prices has materially thinned.
BTC hasn't posted a weekly close above $70,000 since early February, establishing that level as meaningful resistance. The cost basis for holders who acquired coins in the past one to four weeks sits right around $70K, creating what Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish describes as "a significant overhead distribution zone" between $68,500 and $71,500.
Translation: recent buyers are barely in profit, and they're likely to sell into any rally attempt.
Early Signs of Stabilization
Not everything looks grim. Spot selling pressure appears to be moderating. Coinbase's cumulative volume delta has begun rebounding, suggesting renewed bid-side activity on the largest U.S. exchange. Binance and aggregate exchange flows remain weak but have stopped accelerating lower.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing tentative improvement after weeks of sustained outflows. The 7-day moving average of net flows, which remained negative for several weeks during the decline, has stabilized with the first renewed inflows appearing.
Derivatives positioning tells a similar story of caution giving way to cautious optimism. The perpetual market directional premium has compressed toward cycle lows as leveraged longs unwound—painful, but it means excess speculation has been flushed from the system.
Options Market Eyes $75K
The real action is happening in options. The put/call volume ratio has collapsed from 1.89 on February 28 to 0.40, marking a dramatic shift from defensive hedging toward upside positioning. Implied volatility has compressed across all tenors as panic pricing fades.
The $75,000 strike has emerged as what traders call a "gamma magnet"—hosting approximately $2.3 billion in negative gamma across expiries, with $1.8 billion concentrated in the March 27 expiry alone. When dealers are short gamma at a strike, their hedging activity can pull price toward that level.
Nearly two-thirds of the $14.5 million in net call premium traded at the $75K strike accumulated in just the past week.
What Comes Next
The market sits at an inflection point. On-chain fundamentals suggest this consolidation resembles early bear market conditions more than a launchpad for new highs—Bitcoin remains down roughly 43% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. But stabilizing ETF flows, fading volatility, and the rotation toward call positioning indicate traders aren't betting on immediate collapse either.
The $70K cost basis ceiling represents the first real test. If BTC can absorb selling from recent buyers and hold above that zone, the gamma concentration at $75K could draw price higher into month-end. Failure to clear that overhead supply likely means more sideways grinding until genuine demand catalysts emerge.
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