Solana Price Jumps 4% but Derivatives Data Shows Weak Trader Conviction

• The Solana price recovery challenges the $91.4 resistance to bolster its next leap of $100 resistance.
• The open interest tied to Solana futures contracts shows a stagnant movement around $5 billion, indicating lack of speculative force for price.
• The gradual increase in TVL points to a cautious return of liquidity and user activity across Solana-based protocols.

SOL, the seventh largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 4.46% during Wednesday’s U.S, market hours. This uptick followed the footsteps of Bitcoin as it reclaimed the $70,000 mark amid renewed spot ETF inflow and investors absorbing geopolitical tension. However, the recovery potential for Solana price remains restricted amid overhead supply and stagnant trading in derivative markets.

SOL Faces $91 Barrier as Traders Stay on the Sidelines

On March 4th, the crypto market witnessed a sudden inflow and reached a total market cap of $2.45 trillion. Similarly, the Bitcoin price surged to $72,850, and the Ethereum price reached $2,135.

Following the momentum, the Solana price jumped 4.46% to $90.37, currently challenging a firm horizontal resistance of $91.41. This resistance and firm support at $76.7 drives the ongoing consolidation trend in SOL.

Similar to the price action, the derivative market depicts the absence of stagnant trading activity in SOL futures contracts over the past four weeks. According to coinglass data, the Solana’s open interest has been fluctuating around $5 billion. This indicates a lack of strong directional conviction among traders and low fresh capital inflows into leveraged positions. The flat open interest suggests market participants are mostly sitting on the sidelines, not aggressively exposing themselves to long or short exposure, which usually signals consolidation and fewer volatility expectations and indecision is prevailing in the SOL market.

In addition, total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem from $13.2 billion recorded a minor growth to $6.11 to $6.81 since last month. This signals a slow recovery in on-chain activity and the reallocation of capital cautiously into Solana-based protocols. While the TVL is still far below the highs of previous periods, the recent surge is a result of better user activity and liquidity supply in popular DeFi apps.

Both the stagnant data of derivatives and the limited TVL recovery strengthen a neutral to cautious market structure for SOL. Without a significant growth in open interest or a stronger acceleration in TVL, the asset is likely to remain range bound until a clear fundamental or sentiment catalyst shows up.

Here’s Why Solana Price Heading to Make-or-Break Ceiling

With today’s price jump, the Solana price challenged its overhead resistance of $91.4. If bullish momentum persists, the buyers could flip this resistance into potential support and exit a month-long consolidation with recouped bullish momentum.

THe post-breakout rally could push the price 9.76% up to challenge another key resistance of the falling channel pattern at $100.

This pattern, characterized by two parallel trendlines, has been driving the ongoing correction trend in SOL. 

Thus, the potential retest to $100 psychological mark creates a make-or-break scenario of this altcoin. An upside breakout from the resistance trendline will accelerate the bullish momentum for a higher rally to $148.

On the contrary, a bearish reversal from the resistance trendline will signal continued profit-booking pressure from investors, which could extend the ongoing downtrend.

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