NFL 2025 Week 1 Fantasy Football The Best/Worst Matchups By Positions

NFL 2025 Week 1 is happening. But a Javonte Williams multiple touchdown night, who knew? Now it is time to decipher how the remaining 14 games will impact your fantasy football team. What are the best and worst matchups by positions.

If the Thursday night game showed us anything, it is that last year’s stats are good, but remember the changes this year is giving us. The Eagles’ defense came in allowing the second fewest rushing touchdowns per game (0.5) and Williams torched them for two in the first half. Their defense changed and Jalen Carter getting ejected didn’t help.

The Cowboys did give up the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback (20.9) and they allowed the most rushing touchdowns to the quarterback (10) last season. Jalen Hurts finished last night with 24.28 fantasy points and two rushing touchdowns. So, there’s that.

But who has the edge with the remaining Week 1 games.

Quarterback Best And Worst Matchups

Defenses that gave up the most fantasy points to the quarterback in 2024:

1. Carolina Panthers, 20.5
2. Jacksonville Jaguars, 20.1
3. Atlanta Falcons, 19.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons, Buccaneers -2.0, 48.5 o/u

This game has the third highest predictive total and it is played indoors. Baker Mayfield is without his offensive coordinator, wide receiver Chris Godwin and more importantly left tackle Tristian Wirfs.

Wirfs led the league in pass blocking grade last season per Pro Football Focus. When Mayfield was allowed to play from a clean pocket last season he led the league in touchdown passes (36) and passing yards(3872). For the year, he was third in passing yards (4500) and finished with a 71.4% completion percentage. But without Wirfs, playing from a clean pocket may not be so easy.

The Falcons defense was 30th in pressure rate last season. They added Leonard Floyd during free agency and drafted Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

The Falcons’ second year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., will be without right tackle Kaleb McGary and possibly wide receiver Darnell Mooney who is a ‘game time decision’. That leaves Penix Jr., versus a Buccaneers’ defense that was tied for sixth in sacks (46) and that according to Next Gen Stats generated the most unblocked pressures (64) with the second highest blitz rate (38.9%) and the eighth highest pressure rate (35.8). The Bucs also added edge rusher Haason Reddick in free agency.

Best Quarterback Matchup

Trevor Lawrence v Carolina Panthers, Carolina @ Jacksonville -3.5, 46.5 o/u

If you believe in Liam Coen and also believe that Lawrence’s underperformance can be attributed to the Panthers previous head coaching acquisitions, this is the matchup.

The Panthers defense not only gave up the second most fantasy points (20.5) to quarterbacks last season but they allowed the eighth most passing yards per game (224.7) and gave up a league worst 31.4 points per game.

Full cards on the table the Jaguars gave up the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position (19.8) and the most passing yards per game (257.4), but this is about Lawrence, Coen, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange and Travis Etienne.

Defenses that gave up the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback 2024:

1. Chicago Bears, 13.2
2. Miami Dolphins, 13.8
3. Green Bay Packers, 14.1

Worst Quarterback Matchup

J.J. McCarthy @ Chicago Bears, Minnesota -1.5 @ Chicago, 43.5 o/u

Not sure if anyone is brave enough to roll out McCarthy in Week 1, so this might just be a cautionary tale. Notoriously unreliable preseason talk regarding McCarthy is mixed. But the Vikings did go out and sign journeyman Carson Wentz.

The Bears defense will be playing under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and with the free agent additions of Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo. Last season this defense allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (17) and eighth in pressure rate (36.8%) with 40 sacks.

So the rookie will not only be playing in Chicago under the Monday Night lights but going against Allen’s man coverage with a limping Justin Jefferson, a suspended Jordan Addison and offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw questionable with a knee injury.

Running Backs Best And Worst Matchups

Defenses that gave up the most rushing yards per game to the running back 2024:

1. Carolina Panthers, 179.8
2. Washington Commanders, 143.4
3. New Orleans Saints, 141.4

Best Running Back Matchup

James Conner @ New Orleans Saints, Arizona -6.5 @ New Orleans, 43.5 o/u

The Saints not only gave up the third most rushing yards per game, but they also gave up the sixth most fantasy points per game (20.6) to the running back position. Pro Football Focus gave them the second worst run defense grade and their only additions were Davon Goddaux whose run defense grade was a 48.0 and Jonathan Bullard who graded out at a 63.6.

Defenses that gave up the fewest rushing yards per game to the running back 2024:

1. Baltimore Ravens, 80.9
2. Minnesota Vikings, 93.2
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 96.9

Worst Running Back Matchup

Tony Pollard @ Denver Broncos, Tennessee @ Denver -8.5, 42.5 o/u

In addition to allowing the fifth fewest rushing yards per game (102.7), the Broncos defense gave up the third fewest rushing touchdowns per game (0.6) and the third fewest points per game (19.0).

Now the Titans are tasked with coming to Denver, dealing with the altitude (it’s a thing), with a rookie quarterback, a below average offensive line against a defensive line that led the league in sacks last season (63) and was ranked third in run defense.

Tight Ends Best and Worst Matchups

Defenses that gave up the most fantasy points per game to the tight end 2024:

1. Cincinnati Bengals, 10.1
2. Carolina Panthers, 10.0
3. Las Vegas Raiders, 9.5

Best Tight End Matchup

David Njoku v Cincinnati Bengals, Cincinnati -4.5 @ Cleveland, 48.5 o/u

It’s not only that the Bengals defense was notoriously bad last season, tight ends averaged 65.53 receiving yards per game against them, and the Bengals defense allowed the second most touchdowns (11) to the tight end position.

With Joe Flacco under center Njoku has averaged 18.6 fantasy points. Last season without Flacco in the two games against the Bengals, Njoku had 18 receptions on 24 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown.

Defenses that gave up the least amount of fantasy points per game to the tight end 2024:

1. Detroit Lions, 4.9
2. Arizona Cardinals, 5.1
3. Philadelphia Eagles, 5.1

Worst Tight End Matchup

Juwan Johnson v Arizona Cardinals, Arizona -6.5 @ New Orleans, 43.5 o/u

Kellen Moore left the offensive coordinator position in Philadelphia to become head coach in New Orleans. Their quarterback Derek Carr retired. Taysom Hill’s status with the Saints is uncertain and Spencer Rattler is their starting quarterback (maybe I should have led with that).

Rattler played in seven games last season and finished with a 57.0% completion percentage.

Johnson played in 17 games last year and finished with three touchdowns, 548 receiving yards with 50 receptions.

The Cardinal defense wasn’t a powerhouse in 2024 ranking 16th in points allowed per game (22.3) and their defensive line ranked 28th by PFF. However, they did add Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson, all veterans who are more than capable of rattling (had to do it) the Saints offense in the first game of the year.

Wide Receivers Best and Worst Matchups

Best Wide Receiver Matchup

Jerry Jeudy v Cincinnati Bengals, Cincinnati -4.5 @ Cleveland, 48.5 o/u

While Jeudy isn’t the best wide receiver (not even the best on this field) his peripherals make it a good matchup. He has Flacco slinging him the ball, the Browns had the third most plays per game last season (more plays equals more opportunity) and the Bengals defense gave up 139.41 receiving yards and 20.3 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.

Worst Wide Receiver Matchup

D.K. Metcalf @ New York Jets, Pittsburgh -3.o @ New York, 38.5 o/u

UGH! As a Steeler fan this one hurts, but the Jets secondary is formidable, their new defensive minded head coach is formidable and well we have yet to see if accolades can be hoisted upon new Steeler quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Plus Metcalf will be competing with the tight ends in Arthur Smith’s offense and Rodgers’ check downs.

And while the Steelers averaged a mid 62.6 plays per game, the Jets averaged the third fewest with 59.4. This game will be a defensive slugfest.

Good Luck! Play Nice! And remember in fantasy football it is always about the matchups.