U.S. Plans New AI Chip Export Rules That Could Hurt Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD Stock

TLDR

• The Trump administration is drafting new rules that would require government approval for nearly all overseas AI chip sales.
• A tiered licensing system would apply, with the strictest rules for deployments of 200,000 GPUs or more.
• Both Nvidia and AMD stocks have already fallen slightly this year before this news broke.
• Nvidia’s China sales — worth $17 billion in 2024 — remain frozen after earlier export restrictions, showing the real cost.
• The rules are not finalized and could still change or be dropped entirely.

The Trump administration is drawing up rules that could force Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to get U.S. government approval before shipping AI chips to almost any country in the world.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The proposed regulations, reported by Bloomberg and Reuters, would create a tiered licensing system based on the size of the shipment. Small orders of under 1,000 chips would face a basic review. Mid-sized orders would need pre-clearance. Large deployments of 200,000 chips or more would require security guarantees and commitments to invest in U.S. AI infrastructure from the host country’s government.

The rules would not apply to countries already blocked from receiving advanced U.S. chips, such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

Neither Nvidia nor AMD gave a comment by the time of reporting. Nvidia was down about 1.1% in early Friday trading, and AMD was down around 1.2%.

Both stocks have already been under pressure this year. Investor enthusiasm for AI-related stocks has cooled due to concerns about tech company spending, rising memory costs, and a broader shift toward value stocks.

What Happened With China Shows the Risk

Nvidia’s situation in China gives a clear picture of what’s at stake. In April 2025, the Trump administration stopped chip sales to China for a review. China responded by banning foreign chips in government-backed data centers.

Nearly a year later, those sales have not resumed. In 2024, Nvidia’s China chip sales totaled $17 billion, or about 13% of total revenue.

Nvidia reported $216 billion in total revenue last year, up 65% from the year before. AMD reported $35 billion, up 34%. Both companies rely heavily on overseas demand to drive that growth.

The Middle East Deal Is Not a Reassuring Example

The Commerce Department pointed to recent AI chip deals in the Middle East as a model for the new approach. Last year, it approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced chips to companies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

But those deals took months to finalize due to negotiations over U.S. investment commitments and security concerns. That’s a small number compared to the millions of chips Nvidia and AMD typically sell to large U.S. tech companies.

If a similar approval process applies to all overseas sales, it could slow access to the estimated $1.5 trillion “sovereign AI” market — where countries aim to build their own national AI infrastructure.

The Rules Are Not Final Yet

The Commerce Department said it is not returning to the previous “AI diffusion” framework proposed under President Biden, which would have capped global chip sales directly.

The proposed rules have not been finalized and could still be changed or scrapped before any implementation.

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