Kalshi and Polymarket Each Target $20 Billion Valuations in New Fundraising Talks

TLDR

• Kalshi and Polymarket are both in early talks to raise funds at ~$20 billion valuations, doubling their previous figures
• Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion in December; Polymarket at $9 billion in October
• Kalshi recently hit a $1 billion+ annual revenue run rate; some estimates say $1.5 billion
• Both platforms face new legislation that would ban markets on war, sports, and other topics
• Multiple insider trading allegations have hit Polymarket, with traders reportedly making millions on well-timed bets

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction market platforms, are each in early talks to raise money at valuations of around $20 billion. That would roughly double what both companies were worth just a few months ago.

The discussions are at an early stage and may not result in deals. Neither company is guaranteed to hit that valuation.

Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion in December, when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. The company was founded in 2018 and became the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US after receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020.

Kalshi lets users bet on outcomes in sports, politics, the economy, and pop culture. It recently crossed $1 billion in annual revenue, with some sources putting the figure closer to $1.5 billion.

Polymarket was last valued at $9 billion in October, after Intercontinental Exchange — the owner of the New York Stock Exchange — agreed to invest up to $2 billion. Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan.

Polymarket is currently off-limits to US users, though it can be accessed through a VPN. The company plans to launch a regulated US version of its app later this year.

Lawmakers Push for New Restrictions

Both platforms are now facing increased scrutiny from US lawmakers. Representatives Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal introduced legislation that would ban prediction markets on topics including war and sports.

The push came after suspiciously timed bets on US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider trading concerns. Senator Chris Murphy said individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge of the attack to place bets. Several Polymarket accounts reportedly made around $1 million by betting just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

Both platforms have also been criticized for aggressively targeting college students, including paying fraternities cash in exchange for signing up new users.

Polymarket Faces Multiple Insider Trading Allegations

Polymarket has faced several insider trading claims in recent months. A group of crypto wallets made more than $1.2 million betting on a market tied to an investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published claims about insider trading linked to the project.

In a separate incident, a Polymarket account reportedly earned around $400,000 after placing a large bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, just before the news became public.

Kalshi and Polymarket have both had talks with investors about raising at $20 billion valuations, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.

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