Billionaire investor warns Bitcoin ‘will be lucky to survive’ quantum computing after this period

Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) faces existential risks from quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI).

In an X post on March 8, the analyst said the cryptocurrency would be fortunate to survive the next five years.

Giustra made the remark in response to a video clip featuring Block co-founder Jack Dorsey and Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor. 

The clip, shared by Bitcoin infrastructure provider Maestro, shows Saylor emphasizing Bitcoin’s self-custody capability, which he said gives it ethical and moral superiority over most digital securities and supports projections that the network could endure for a century.

Dorsey echoed the view, highlighting Bitcoin’s slow and predictable upgrade process compared with faster-moving alternatives like Ethereum (ETH), and expressing confidence that this approach could allow it to function as an internet-native currency serving billions for decades.

Notably, the two experts agreed that the asset could keep increasing in value for centuries.

Giustra dismissed the claim, saying centuries-long durability is unrealistic given accelerating technological threats, and added that Bitcoin will be lucky to survive AI and quantum computing within five years.

The mining financier and longtime gold advocate has frequently criticized Bitcoin as a speculative asset rather than a reliable store of value, arguing its transparent blockchain could make it more vulnerable to government seizure than physical gold.

His main concern is quantum computing’s potential to undermine Bitcoin’s security through algorithms such as Shor’s, which could derive private keys from exposed public keys and compromise elliptic curve–based signatures. 

Roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s supply, including older or dormant addresses, could be vulnerable if sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge.

Progress in quantum computing 

Recent advances in quantum hardware have intensified the debate. For instance, companies such as Google, IBM, Quantinuum, and PsiQuantum have reported progress in qubit counts, gate fidelity, and error-corrected systems, while PsiQuantum has accelerated construction of large-scale facilities.

However, most experts say a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin remains years away. Some researchers, including BIP-360 co-author Ethan Heilman, estimate Bitcoin has about seven years to achieve meaningful quantum resistance if upgrades begin soon, given the coordination and adoption required across the network.

Developers have already begun addressing the risk. For instance, in February 2026, BIP 360, titled Pay-to-Merkle-Root, was published in the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository for review. 

The proposal introduces a new output type that hides vulnerable public keys, similar to Taproot, while removing quantum-exposed keypath spends.

It has not been activated and would likely require additional proposals and years of community consensus.

Industry estimates, including from Citi Institute, place the probability of widespread public-key breakage at 19% to 34% by 2034, rising further by 2044. 

Most cybersecurity and blockchain experts emphasize preparation rather than predicting imminent failure, while government plans, such as U.S. timelines to transition critical infrastructure to quantum-safe systems between 2030 and 2035, reflect similar caution.

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