Trump Says Oil Will Drop Fast — But Bitcoin and Stocks Are Already Feeling the Pain

TLDR

• Crude oil surged past $116 per barrel after U.S.-Israeli strikes linked to “Operation Epic Fury” disrupted global energy markets
• U.S. stock futures erased over $2 trillion in value on Monday morning
• Bitcoin fell below $66,000 and Ethereum slipped to $1,960 as crypto markets lost $40 billion over the weekend
• February CPI inflation data is due Wednesday, with the PCE index following on Friday
• The Fed’s rate-setting meeting on March 18 currently shows a 95.5% probability of no rate changes

Oil prices hit $116 per barrel on Monday after military strikes tied to “Operation Epic Fury” rattled global energy markets. The surge came as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran expanded, raising fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose as much as 22% in early Monday trading. Brent crude moved sharply higher as well, with analysts warning that restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — which carries around 20% of global oil shipments — could keep prices elevated.

The national average for U.S. gasoline reached around $3.45 per gallon before climbing further as energy market volatility spread.

Analysts at Rystad Energy warned that even if the Iran nuclear threat is resolved, prices could stay near $100–$110 per barrel for an extended period due to ongoing shipping risks in the Persian Gulf.

Stock and Crypto Markets React

U.S. stock futures erased over $2 trillion in value on Monday morning. The Kobeissi Letter described it as “one of those days that will be referenced for decades to come,” pointing to 20 million barrels per day of oil supply going offline with no sign of de-escalation.

Crypto markets dropped $40 billion over the weekend, bringing total market cap to $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin faced resistance at $68,000 on Sunday and fell below $66,000 before a small recovery during Asian trading Monday.

Ethereum failed to hold above $2,000 over the weekend and slipped to $1,960 at the time of writing. Most altcoins were flat over the past 24 hours.

High-risk assets like crypto tend to react quickly to geopolitical events, and this week was no different.

Inflation Data Adds Pressure This Week

February’s Consumer Price Index report is due Wednesday. With fuel prices climbing, analysts expect inflation readings to come in hot.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January, is due Friday. It is expected to show a 0.4% month-on-month increase, matching December’s pace and marking a second straight hot reading.

The Fed meets on March 18. According to CME Group futures markets, there is a 95.5% probability that interest rates stay unchanged at that meeting.

Internal Fed discussions have flagged that sustained high energy costs could complicate rate policy decisions going forward.

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