For those who read fates in the stars and in the arrangement of furniture, the first three months of 2026 have been inauspicious so far for the President. 

To top it all, on his greatest moment on the international stage, he caught a cold.

That photo of the President with a runny nose while addressing the UN General Assembly is feeding a frenzy of memes from the Duterte horde. It highlights not only the toxic political environment but also how it’s become practically impossible to have common ground.

The state of the President’s health has always been high on the list of DDS attack points. In January, a brief hospital visit for a medical condition, later revealed to be diverticulitis — attributed, predictably, by the Palace to hard work, provided another opening for the DDS to question the President’s health, complete with a medical report subsequently disavowed by the hospital as fake. That the President caught a cold in New York is only the latest in their all-out negative offensive. 

But the demands of the office may be catching up with the President, who must balance the day-to-day work of governance and economic management with his anti-corruption crusade. 

He needs a big win on the latter. With self-imposed deadlines past due, the President needs a satisfying conclusion, satisfying defined not by his own standards but a public that has soured on the campaign, feeling let down by the glacial pace of justice, even if diligence and caution raise the prospects of eventual conviction. 

What the public sees as inexplicable delays, cynics interpret as invitations for horse trading and brokering by influential and well-connected personalities.

Biggest hurdle

Still, the economy may yet be the biggest hurdle for the President. The raging conflict in the Middle East will impact heavily on an economy reliant on remittances from migrant workers and imported oil. 

At this stage, the impact is starting to be felt, and a prolonged, and potentially broader conflict would fuel more dissatisfaction.  

Economic issues will demand more of the President’s attention, given that his preoccupation with playing the role of anti-corruption crusader is widely seen as having backfired. He needs to pivot to addressing economic realities. The challenges for the year are greater, and with the conflict in the Middle East adding pressure, the economic relief he promised in his remaining years of his term may prove elusive. 

After more than three years in office, the economic, political and social realities confronting his administration are of his own making. And for some economic observers, he runs the risk of being remembered as the president who wheeled a recovering economy back to intensive care. 

On the political front, the President is disadvantaged by declining trust and satisfaction numbers. Any candidate he openly endorses runs inheriting that baggage. Anointment, given the current climate, could be a kiss of death.  

He may need to look beyond his coalition and his Cabinet, providing support quietly lest his stigma attach to a third-party candidate. This could be  difficult if such a party sees virtues and values as non-negotiable, leaving the President isolated, the political restoration of 2022 reduced to a footnote: a failed experiment, an empty victory.

Unless he can pull off an economic and political miracle, he will also be viewed harshly as the leader whose failed presidency ushered in the return of the Dutertes to power.

For a leader trying to reclaim the national stage amid tanking public satisfaction, a reenergized bete noir in the Vice President, a disintegrating political coalition, and a fragile economy, the stars, sadly, are not aligning. – Rappler.com

Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.