Will Markets React to $1.9B Bitcoin Options Expiring Today?

Around 27,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Mar. 13, with a notional value of roughly $1.9 billion. This event is smaller than usual, so it is unlikely to affect spot markets.

Crypto prices have been flat for most of this week, picking up a little on Friday, with total capitalization gaining $150 billion since Monday, but volatility and volumes have dwindled.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.97, meaning that the longs and the shorts are relatively evenly matched. Max pain is around $69,000, according to Coinglass, which is pretty close to current spot prices, so many could be in the money on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $60,000 strike price on Deribit, with $1.7 billion in bearish bets. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing this month, reaching $45.5 billion.

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed the market rebound, noting that Bitcoin was firmly holding above the $70,000 psychological threshold and is “now poised to challenge $75,000.”

Beyond March, the flat forward implied volatility curve implies no significant term structure premium, suggesting balanced risk pricing for longer-dated options amid stable crypto sentiment, noted Greeks Live this week.

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, around 185,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $382 million, max pain at $2,000, and a put/call ratio of 1.2. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $7.9 billion.

This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $2.3 billion.

Spot Market Outlook

Spot markets have ticked up on Friday morning in Asia, with total capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion again, its highest level for a week.

Bitcoin came just short of $72,000 in early trading but again found resistance there and started to retreat at the time of writing.

Ether prices were faring better with a 4% gain, sending them just above $2,100.

The altcoins were also mostly in the green today with larger moves for Solana, Hyperliquid, Avalanche, and Sui. Meanwhile, Pi Network, PI, skyrocketed 33% on the day to $0.29 following a listing on Kraken.

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