On the latest Market Mavericks broadcast, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone and trader Scott Melker debated whether optimism has gone too far — and where Bitcoin fits into the picture.

Stocks Look Strong, But Warnings From Gold

The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, buoyed by expectations of a Fed rate cut this month. Yet McGlone argued that investors are underestimating risk, pointing to the sharp rise in gold prices as a warning sign. He suggested that gold’s rally reflects growing doubts about the durability of record equity valuations, hinting that markets may be more fragile than they appear.

The Fed’s Shadow Over Volatility

The speakers agreed that expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut are now baked into asset prices. McGlone stressed that this has pushed volatility gauges like the VIX to unusually low levels, an indication of complacency. Melker, meanwhile, warned that although weaker jobs data clears the way for cuts, inflation is not yet tamed, creating the possibility that the Fed’s hand will be forced again later.

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Bitcoin Holds, Altcoins Rise

Turning to digital assets, Melker pointed out that Bitcoin’s steady footing around $114,000 shows resilience, but he admitted that the market remains heavily sentiment-driven. McGlone compared the crypto space to a casino, saying Bitcoin is behaving more like a commodity than “digital gold.” Both noted that the $112,000 support zone has become a critical line to watch, while the 50-day moving average looms as resistance overhead.

Ethereum has shown little momentum, leaving space for Solana and other altcoins to capture trader interest. Melker described this rotation as a “flag takeover,” with altcoins beginning to shape the narrative in ways that previously belonged to Bitcoin and Ethereum alone.

Red Flags in Proxy Assets

Beyond the crypto charts, McGlone called attention to MicroStrategy’s stock slipping below its 200-day moving average. Since the company holds one of the largest Bitcoin treasuries, he suggested the move could signal caution for crypto bulls as well.

Sentiment Runs High, But Risks Are Building

While both analysts acknowledged that Bitcoin and equities have shown surprising resilience, their message was clear: investor confidence may be running ahead of fundamentals. With gold flashing warning signs, inflation still sticky, and Fed policy in flux, the next few weeks could prove decisive for risk assets.

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