Fed decision tonight will likely decide whether Bitcoin gets past $80k or fall further

Bitcoin has mostly traded around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. However, as of press time, Bitcoin has just lost the $73,500 support, with a route to $72,000 now in sight.

The meeting is expected to leave the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections for inflation, growth, and unemployment after the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher.

The policy rate itself has drawn less attention than the Fed’s quarterly projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise Europe’s head of research, said:

Notably, President Donald Trump has pressed Powell to cut borrowing costs immediately, yet investors have moved in the other direction as oil surged and the inflation outlook worsened.

According to Reuters, futures markets now imply one quarter-point rate cut this year, in September, and another in late 2027, a path that is far tighter than the White House has advocated.

For crypto traders, that has turned Wednesday’s meeting into a test of whether Bitcoin can extend a recovery that has carried it back into the mid-$70,000s, or whether a firmer Fed message will keep the market pinned below the next major options and psychological threshold near $80,000.

The setup has become more sensitive because the central bank is dealing with a fresh energy shock at the same time that labor indicators have weakened and a leadership transition is approaching in Washington.

Oil shock reshapes the rate outlook

The Fed entered this meeting with the economy already losing momentum before the conflict added another inflation channel.

US gasoline prices averaged $3.79 a gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25% above where they stood before the war began.

Due to this, economists such as KPMG’s Diane Swonk expect policymakers to mark up their inflation and unemployment forecasts and reduce their growth outlook, reflecting a policy backdrop that has shifted from a relatively orderly easing debate to a broader dispute over how much inflation risk the Fed can absorb.

Recent US data support that tension. The Commerce Department reported core PCE inflation at 3.1% year over year in January, the highest reading since March 2024, while fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.7%.

The labor picture also softened, with the nonfarm payrolls falling by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%.

Those figures leave the Fed balancing a jobs market that has lost momentum against an inflation trend that remains above target before any full pass-through from higher energy costs.

That mix is central to Bitcoin’s current macro narrative. Through much of the past two years, the flagship digital asset has often traded as a proxy for easier financial conditions, lower real yields, and expanding liquidity.

Wednesday’s meeting carries a different set of inputs. A Fed that raises inflation forecasts, keeps the median path restrictive, and signals caution on cuts would reduce the case for a rapid expansion in risk appetite, even if digital assets have held firmer than some equity benchmarks during the latest geopolitical shock.

Powell’s term adds a second clock for markets

A second timeline is also in play. Powell’s current term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, though his term as a member of the Board of Governors runs until Jan. 31, 2028, according to the Federal Reserve.

That distinction has become important for investors trying to map policy beyond Wednesday’s decision. A chair transition that once looked straightforward has become less certain as Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, remains stuck in the Senate.

Warsh’s nomination remains on hold while the legal fight around the Justice Department’s investigation of Powell continues. So, if Warsh is not confirmed by the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, Powell would continue leading rate-setting meetings even after his chair term ends.

That possibility extends the window during which markets may still be trading Powell’s policy framework, even as Trump continues to signal his preference for lower rates and a different leadership style at the Fed.

For Bitcoin, this adds a second layer of interpretation to the Fed meeting. Investors would be reading Wednesday’s projections for clues about 2026, and they would also be weighing how much of the medium-term path could change once the leadership question is settled.

That does not guarantee a cleaner policy path for crypto or broader risk assets. A delayed transition, Senate friction, and continuing legal disputes around Powell all add uncertainty to the schedule that investors had expected to guide the second half of the year.

Bitcoin’s rebound meets a policy test

Bitcoin has recovered from the sharp slide that took it under $60,000 earlier this quarter, yet the market is still trading far below the record levels seen late last year.

Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000, citing stalled progress on US crypto legislation and a narrower window for regulatory catalysts that could support ETF demand and broader institutional adoption.

In the same note, Citi described $70,000 as an important level for BTC as the market awaits policy and legislative direction.

However, industry experts believe BTC could aim higher given the current corporate accumulation, which remains part of the support structure. Crypto market maker Wintermute said:

For context, Bitcoin ETFs are currently on their strongest inflow streak since last October, with seven days of consecutive positive cash additions totaling $1.1 billion.

At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to add to its BTC holdings aggressively. The firm has acquired more than 40,000 BTC this month, lifting its holdings to 761,068 Bitcoin.

These purchases show that the market’s largest corporate buyers are still adding exposure at prices close to where Bitcoin trades now, even with rate uncertainty unresolved.

That steady demand has helped build a base of buyers beyond short-term macro traders and exchange-driven momentum accounts.

Considering this, the next technical and derivatives reference point sits near $80,000. CME Group said in a March 6 market note that the $80,000 call strike carried high open interest, making it a focal level for market participants.

That shows where traders have concentrated exposure as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize after a deep first-quarter drawdown. A move toward that level after the Fed decision would likely pull more attention from options desks and short-term hedgers, especially if Powell leaves the door open for easing later this year.