Powell’s comments on oil, inflation may provide BTC price guidance: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$74,191.24 and the wider crypto market are taking a breather in advance of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision, which could confirm that the interest-rate backdrop is becoming less of a tailwind.

The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range, putting the focus on growth and inflation projections as well as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-meeting press conference.

“For investors, the key question is whether the dot plot shifts toward fewer cuts and whether Powell emphasizes the danger of easing financial conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to the chart of where decision makers expect interest rates to be at year-end. “Either development would reinforce a ‘higher for longer’ bias and tighten financial conditions at the margin.”

According to Dori, the bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, where repeated failures to stay above $75,000 signals caution and mean-reversion behavior. Should the Fed raise alarm over the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil-price shock and reinforce expectations of slower or delayed rate cuts, then BTC is likely to remain below $75,000.

“A more hawkish stance could keep bitcoin capped below 75k and extend the current consolidation phase,” he noted.

Singapore-based QCP Capital said markets have pared easing expectations as the higher oil price complicates the case for interest-rate cuts, even as growth and labour data soften. This leaves the rates backdrop less supportive for crypto.

Bitcoin’s stalled upswing stalled comes despite renewed institutional appetite for spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.

The broader market continues to mirror the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 Index has been largely steady for the past 24 hours, alongside similar action in ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and other majors. Smaller coins such as SIREN, M, and KAS, however, have gained about 10% each.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 index have risen by 0.5%, signaling an extension of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index pulled back to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield receded to 4.17% from 4.30%. Taken together, these moves point to continued risk-on sentiment. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. PPI MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Core PPI MoM est. (Prev. 0.8%)
  • March 18, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PPI YoY for February est. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%); Core PPI YoY est. 3.2% (Prev. 3.6%)
  • March 18, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision est. 2.25% (Prev. 2.25%)
  • March 18, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Factory Orders MoM for January (Prev. -0.7%)
  • March 18, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision est. 3.50%-3.75% (Prev. 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC economic projections
  • March 18, 2:30 p.m.: Fed Chair press conference
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • March 18: Jupiter (JUP) to hold its weekly Planetary Call community session with team updates.
  • March 18: THETA$0.1876 head of marketing and PR to discuss ecosystem updates.
  • WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends March 18.
  • ENS is voting on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends March 18.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 18: Katana (KAT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $73,825.38 (24hrs: +0.11%)
• ETH is down 0.44% at $2,307.45 (24hrs: -0.33%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% at 2,148.73 (24hrs: -0.27%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.75%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.56
• Gold futures are down 0.10% at $4,996.20
• Silver futures are up 0.65% at $80.05
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
• Hang Seng closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42
• FTSE 100 is up 0.29% at 10,433.60
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.02% at 5,828.33
• DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.10% at 46,993.26
• S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.50% at 3,459.11
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.20%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.30% at 6,809.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.57% at 25,184.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.18% at 47,595.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.37
• Total fees: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,080 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.93%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows the number of BTC/USD longs, or bullish bets, on Bitfinex.
• The growth has stalled, with the tally now at 78,470 versus 79,115 early this month.
• As counterintuitive as it may sound, past data shows that declines in long positions on Bitfinex tend to be bullish for BTC, and vice versa.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $210.23 (+3.40%), +1.77% at $213.95 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% at $9.33
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% at $14.83
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% at $16.66
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% at $134.30
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% at $40.38

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy Inc. (MSTR): closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% at $150.76
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged in pre-market
• SharpLink (SBET): closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% at $8.35
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), –0.87% at $1.14
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $199.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.51 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $138.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.99 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million

Source: Farside Investors

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