Crude Oil Surges Past $113 Amid Trump’s Iran Deadline and Market Turmoil

Key Highlights

• Brent crude surged to $113.52 per barrel while WTI breached the $100 mark amid Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum
• President Trump warned of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure unless the strait reopens; Tehran promised countermeasures
• Energy infrastructure across nine nations has sustained damage to at least 40 assets since hostilities commenced
• The International Energy Agency compared the current crisis to both 1970s oil shocks occurring simultaneously
• Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 Brent crude projection upward to $85 per barrel from $77, citing extended supply disruptions

Energy markets witnessed another upward surge Monday as traders demonstrated skepticism toward President Trump’s 48-hour demand that Iran restore operations through the Strait of Hormuz.

The international Brent crude benchmark advanced 1.2% to settle at $113.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, America’s primary crude measure, jumped 2.5% to $100.71 per barrel. Since American and Israeli military operations against Iran commenced in late February, Brent has experienced a remarkable rally exceeding 50%.

Over the weekend, Trump declared that Tehran must completely restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz within two days or face military action targeting its electrical infrastructure. Iranian officials countered with warnings of retaliatory strikes against critical facilities throughout the region.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz serves as the vital corridor connecting Persian Gulf oil production to international markets. Vessel movement through this critical waterway has effectively ground to a halt. Oil producers throughout the Persian Gulf region have been compelled to retain millions of barrels in storage or resort to constrained alternative shipping channels.

IEA Draws Parallels to Historical Energy Crises

Fatih Birol, who leads the International Energy Agency as Executive Director, addressed attendees at an Australian conference, characterizing the present disruption as comparable to merging both significant 1970s petroleum crises with the 2022 natural gas emergency following Russia’s Ukrainian invasion — “combined into one.”

He disclosed that a minimum of 40 energy facilities have experienced substantial damage spanning nine nations since conflict erupted. Though the IEA continues evaluating the release of strategic petroleum reserves, Birol emphasized that such measures alone would prove insufficient to address the crisis.

The confrontation has now persisted for 24 days, representing double the duration of a comparable standoff involving identical parties during the previous year.

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Crude Oil Projections

Goldman Sachs announced revised oil price projections over the weekend. The financial institution now anticipates Brent crude will average $85 per barrel throughout this year, representing an upward revision from the earlier $77 estimate. Their WTI projection similarly increased to $79 per barrel from the previous $72 forecast.

The analysts emphasized that price escalation will likely persist until markets develop confidence that prolonged supply interruptions remain improbable.

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, has canceled his participation in Houston’s upcoming CERAWeek annual gathering this week, where petroleum market dynamics and the ongoing conflict were anticipated to dominate agenda items.

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