A Critical Signal Has Emerged in Bitcoin’s Price This Week: It Could Mark the Start of a Bear Market, Though Not Yet Confirmed

Rafael Poliseli Teles, an analyst at the cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, shared a noteworthy new assessment regarding Bitcoin’s market cycles.

According to Teles, historical data suggests a new global downtrend may begin by 2026. The analysis specifically claims that the “Short-Term Holder Realized Price” (STHRP) and “Active Realized Price” (ARP) metrics offer high reliability in identifying market cycles.

According to the analysis, the Short-Term Investor Realized Price (STI), which measures the average cost of short-term investors (those who have traded within the last 155 days), stands out as a more robust indicator compared to classic moving averages because it is directly derived from onchain transactions. The Active Realized Price (ALP), on the other hand, only considers the active circulating supply, excluding lost or long-inactive coins and offering a “cleaner” cost base for the market. When these two metrics are considered together, they generate signals that strongly confirm trend reversals in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Accordingly, STHRP falling below ARP is interpreted as the beginning of a “downtrend (bear market),” while rising above it is interpreted as the beginning of an “uptrend (bull market).”

The analysis also included examples from past cycles. It was noted that the intersection on November 11, 2022, confirmed a bear market, while the period between January 10-24, 2024, marked the beginning of an uptrend. The most recent data shows a new downtrend signal beginning to form in the week of March 22-28, 2026. However, Teles specifically points out that this signal is only the initial stage and that further confirmation is needed for a definitive trend reversal.

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On the other hand, the analysis highlights the importance of “standard deviation bands” for understanding price movements in downtrends. Accordingly, the Short-Term Investor Realized Price level acts as a global resistance “ceiling,” while the “-1.5 standard deviation band” serves as a global support “floor.” These bands are constructed based on the “Market Value / Realized Value” (MVRV) volatility, which measures price fluctuations around the cost for short-term investors.

Looking at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, it’s clear that the Bitcoin price generally breached these resistance and support levels for short periods and to limited extents. While the price often failed to sustainably break above the Short Term Investor Realized Price level, dips below the -1.5 standard deviation level were also generally temporary. This highlights the critical role these bands play in determining market behavior.

In the current cycle, it is stated that the Bitcoin price tested the global resistance zone at approximately $98,322 on January 14, 2026, and approached the global support level around $61,439 on February 5, but did not fully reach these levels. This scenario is considered a transitional period indicating that the market has not yet determined a clear direction.

Teles notes that the current outlook doesn’t yet point to a definitive bear market, and a second confirmation signal is critical. He states that the “True Average Market Price” indicator would then come into play, and if it confirms the downtrend, a global bear market would become clear. Otherwise, the possibility that the current signal is a “false alarm” remains.

*This is not investment advice.

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