Bitcoin (BTC) Price: The $80K Target Is Still on the Table — But There’s a Catch

TLDR

• Bitcoin slipped around 1%, trading near $70,712, as Trump privately told advisors he wants to end the US-Iran war within four to six weeks.
• Iran rejected US ceasefire terms, adding fresh uncertainty to peace talks and pressuring risk assets.
• Over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire Friday, adding short-term pressure.
• Technical analysts eye a potential move to $80,000, with a key resistance level sitting at $71,500.
• Analyst Ali Charts noted that “weak hands” have left Bitcoin, with new holder realized cap hitting a low historically associated with accumulation phases.

Bitcoin has been trading near the $70,000 mark as geopolitical headlines continue to drive short-term price swings.

US President Donald Trump privately told advisors he wants to end the ongoing US-Iran war within four to six weeks, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. Trump believes the conflict is in its final stages and wants it resolved before a planned mid-May summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Trump originally planned to visit China at the end of March, but that trip was delayed to May. He told an associate the war was pulling his attention away from other priorities, including midterm election preparation and the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act.

Bitcoin dropped roughly 1% on Thursday following the news, trading at $70,712. The 24-hour range ran from $70,558 to $71,985.

Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Terms

Iran pushed back against US ceasefire proposals, outlining its own conditions for ending the conflict. Those conditions include the removal of all US sanctions, compensation for wartime damages, greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, a ballistic missile program, and a guarantee of no future US military action.

The back-and-forth added to market uncertainty. Bitcoin had previously rallied on de-escalation hopes, but Iran’s rejection reversed that sentiment.

Rising oil prices added further pressure, as energy costs have been a key variable in how crypto markets respond to Middle East tensions.

Options Expiry and Derivatives Data

More than $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on Friday, which has historically created short-term volatility. Derivatives data showed BTC open interest rising by $500 million to $16.5 billion over the past 24 hours, with funding rates turning positive at 0.03%.

Despite that activity, the recent price move was largely futures-driven. Spot market participation remained weak, with a cumulative volume delta of -$87 million and a negative Coinbase premium pointing to softening US-based demand.

Analyst Skew described Bitcoin’s current position as a “compression zone,” where narrowing price action could lead to a strong directional breakout. For a sustained move above $71,500, he noted the rally would need stronger spot demand, steady accumulation, and absorption of selling pressure.

A $60 million bid was filled during the New York session, showing some renewed demand, though analysts say follow-through is still needed.

Analyst Ali Charts noted on X that Bitcoin’s realized cap for new holders has hit a low historically linked to washouts of speculative activity, which in past cycles has preceded accumulation phases.

BTC open interest stands at $16.5 billion, with the $71,500 level remaining the key line to watch.

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